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GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair quotes fell twice to the corrective level of 50.0% (1.3839) and two rebounds from this level. Thus, the pair's quotes reversed in favor of the British dollar and began a new growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 23.6% (1.3928). The rebound of the pair's exchange rate from this level will allow us to count on a reversal in favor of the US currency and a new drop in quotes. Meanwhile, a large number of diverse statistics have been released in the UK. Overall, we saw many UK reports last week, and almost all of them were positive. On Friday, it was reported that retail trade volumes increased by 5.4% m/m and 7.2% y/y in March, although traders had expected much smaller figures. The same applies to retail trade, excluding fuel sales - the increase was 4.9% m/m and 7.9% y/y. The same applies to the indices of business activity in the service and manufacturing sectors. The first was 60.1, the second – 60.7. Thus, there were plenty of reasons for the British dollar to show growth on Friday. At times, it showed; however, the economic data from America also turned out to be quite strong, and in the second half of the day, the dollar had the advantage. The index of business activity in the US manufacturing sector in April was 60.6, and in the service sector – 63.1. However, after all the reports ended, the movements did not stop, and without any statistics, the pair's quotes returned to the highs of the day. And today, on Monday, without any news at all, they continued to grow. Thus, the information background is now present, and it is quite strong. Also of great importance are the older charts, where there are "bullish" trends that push the pair up.
GBP/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair fell below the corrective level of 23.6% (1.3870). However, the bullish divergence of the CCI indicator made it possible to perform a reversal in favor of the British dollar and resume the growth process in the direction of the level of 1.4003. The rebound from this corrective level will allow us to expect a resumption of the fall in quotes.
GBP/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes resumed the growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 127.2% (1.4084), and the ascending trend line received new points, through which it now passes. The new closing of quotes under the trend line will again allow us to count on a strong drop in the British dollar.
GBP/USD – Weekly.
The pound/dollar pair completed a close over the second downward trend line on the weekly chart. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound remain.
Overview of fundamentals:
On Friday, in the US and the UK, the economic news calendar contained a fairly large number of entries, which I have analyzed above. The information background was strong on this day.
News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:
US - change in the volume of orders for long-term goods (12:30 UTC).
There will be no background information in the UK on Monday and only one report on orders for long-term goods in the US.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report from April 20 on the British was again very eloquent. The "Non-commercial" category of traders opened 10,523 long contracts and 8,205 short contracts during the reporting week. Thus, the first thing to note is the growth of the activity of major players. In total, 15,171 long contracts and 20,600 short contracts were opened during the reporting week. The activity grew in all categories of traders. The mood of speculators has become more "bullish," and the ratio of the number of long and short contracts focused on their hands remains approximately 2:1. The British can continue the growth process.
GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
I recommend buying the British dollar with a target of 1.4084 if there is a rebound from the trend line on the daily chart. I recommend selling the pound if it is closed under the trend line on the daily chart with a target of 1.3513.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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