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The wave counting on the 4-hour chart is still absolutely clear and does not require any add-ons. Over the past few days, the instrument has built a very similar three-wave corrective structure, which can be wave 2 as part of a new upward trend. If this assumption is correct, then the euro/dollar could rise again from its current position. This can be helped by an unsuccessful attempt to break the 50.0% Fibonacci level. But a successful attempt to surpass this level will indicate that the markets are prepared to continue selling the euro and build a deeper corrective wave. So far, there is no reason to believe that the current wave counting does not correspond to reality. The internal wave structure of wave 1 has taken on a rather extended and incomprehensible form, but the main thing is that everything is clear on a higher scale. Thus, we can work with the current wave counting and also profit.
Today's market activity was not very high, but this does not prevent the instrument from building a descending set of waves. The euro has lost no more than 20 points, although in certain situations it could gain several dozen. In the morning, the European Union released data on business activity in the service sector for April, which showed a higher value than the market expectations - 50.5. The euro slightly increased due to this report, but in general, the markets still tried to get rid of the euro during the day, which is fully consistent with the current wave counting. A little later, the ADP report on changes in the number of employed in the private sector was released, which exceeded the value of the previous month, but did not reach the expectations of the markets - 742,000 new employees. This report only provided minimal support to the greenback. However, I do not expect the dollar to significantly strengthen, since it seems that the markets pay much more attention to wave counting than to the news background, which cannot be deemed as too strong at this time.
In America, everyone is now discussing the new taxes that Biden's team is going to introduce, and through which they are going to fund two new aid packages worth $4 trillion. However, few believe that all of these tax proposals will go through both houses of Congress. Meanwhile, the situation with the pandemic has improved in the European Union, quarantine restrictions are eased in many countries, vaccination continues, and about 20% of EU residents have received at least one dose of the vaccine. However, this news is still difficult to correlate with the euro/dollar pair's movement on the chart. So now it is nothing more than just interesting news.
Based on the analysis, I still expect an upward trend to be built. The construction of a correctional wave 2 or b has begun at this time. Therefore, I recommend waiting for the construction of this wave to be completed, rather than opening new long positions with targets located near 23 figures and higher.
The wave counting of the upward trend is still quite complete, in a five-wave form, and is not going to get complicated yet. But the section of the trend, which began its construction immediately after it, takes on a corrective, but quite understandable form. This part of the trend also looks quite complete. If the current wave counting is correct, then the construction of a new upward trend has now begun.
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