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The wave counting on the 4-hour chart of bitcoin still suggests an increase in quotes. At the moment, the construction of waves a and b of the new upward correction is presumably completed. If this is true, then the rise in quotes will continue as part of the construction of wave c with targets located above the peak of wave a, that is, above the $42,000 mark. At the same time, the market sentiment remains overly negative, which makes it impossible to consider this option with 100% confidence. Let me remind you that wave counting should look as simple and understandable as possible so that you can work it out and make money on it. This is exactly how it is now. Wave c can take on a more extended form than a or b, however, there are no wave structures less than 3 waves. Therefore, I believe that the rise in quotes will continue, despite the weak news background.
The news background for bitcoin, as I said, remains quite negative. There is simply no positive news right now. On the contrary, the situation around China and the United States is escalating every day. Let me remind you that China may completely ban mining and tighten regulation of the cryptocurrency market, while the United States can increase tax pressure on all cryptocurrency transactions as part of the fight against money laundering and tax evasion. In addition, none of the major players are counting on a quick recovery of the upward trend. Many institutional investors, on the contrary, are in no hurry to buy bitcoin, because they expect it to fall even more. JPMorgan chief strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou believes that bitcoin will continue to fall in the medium term. "The inability of bitcoin to make a successful attempt to break through $60,000 will lead to a bearish impulse and will lead to further closing of long positions," Panigirtzoglou believes.
This option is being executed now. Panigirtzoglou also believes that bitcoin can drop to $24,000 and for some time is in the range of $24,000-$36,000. He explains that after the fall of bitcoin in recent months, institutional investors have greatly decreased interest in the main cryptocurrency, which prevents it from resuming growth. There is also an opinion that bitcoin may fall well below the $24,000 mark. Let me remind you that two global upward trends in the past ended just like this - a decline in quotes almost to the points from which the upward movement began. Thus, bitcoin may indeed be at the very beginning of its next long decline, which may take a year or two. At least until the news background improves, I expect only a corrective increase to a maximum of $42,000.
Based on the analysis, I believe that the three downward wave structure is complete. The current wave counting indicates a possible rise within wave c, I continue to recommend buying bitcoin for each MACD upward signal with targets located around $42,500. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 61.8% Fibonacci level could lead to a new decline in bitcoin, but I believe that in the coming year the cryptocurrency will build complex corrective structures and will not resume the upward trend.
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