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The wave counting on the 4-hour chart of the Euro/Dollar instrument has become a little confusing lately and is becoming more ambiguous. The biggest questions are raised by the internal wave structure of the proposed wave 3. Nevertheless, there is reason to believe that the construction of this wave and the next (wave 4) has already been completed. However, the decline in quotes today by 60 basis points leads to the fact that the expected wave 4 can take on a pronounced three-wave form. Even if this happens, the wave counting will still not lose its integrity. Although, as I said, the internal wave structure of wave 3 raises certain questions. In general, I believe that after a decline below the current low of the implied wave 4, the instrument should be given another chance. If the current wave counting is correct, an increase in quotes should resume almost immediately within wave 5. If the decline drags on or the markets show their inability to start new purchases of the European currency, then it will be necessary to make adjustments to the current wave counting.
On Thursday, the news background for the Euro/Dollar instrument was quite interesting and also strong to some extent. However, in this article, I would like to focus on the Beige Book report, which came out last night and its analysis did not make it into my previous articles. I will not review everything said in this report, as there was a lot of unhelpful information in it. Most importantly, all 12 Federal Reserve Banks report strong and stable growth in the US economy. All respondents noted that the impact of the vaccination process has a positive effect on the rate of recovery. Most of the economic indicators are growing moderately. In particular, consumer spending, wages, purchasing prices, selling prices, consumer prices, industrial production, business, and economic activity are growing.
However, many manufacturers report disrupted supply chains, shortages of raw materials and components, and a shortage of labor. Approximately the same rhetoric was voiced in the construction sector, where the increased demand is not able to meet the current volume of construction. The employment rate is perhaps the only indicator that showed "moderate growth". The largest increase in employees was noted in the spheres of public catering, hotel business, and retail trade. Salaries grew at a moderate pace, but many companies offered higher rates and various bonuses when hiring employees. Thus, in general, I see a positive color of the latest review of the "Beige Book", which may help the dollar to grow a little more along with today's reports. Even though it goes against the current wave counting.
Based on the analysis, I still expect the instrument quotes to go up, although at this time I am not completely sure about the wave counting. Thus, I still recommend buying the instrument with targets located near the 23rd figure and the level of 1.2340, for each MACD signal "up". But now a new decline in quotes (which will not prevent trading up, since the MACD will be directed downward) may lead to the need to make adjustments to the current wave counting. Although so far it still fits into the proposed wave 4.
The wave counting of the upward trend section is still quite complete. The part of the trend, which began its construction immediately after it, took on a corrective and also fully completed form. If the current wave counting is correct, then the construction of a new upward trend continues and its first two waves have been completed.
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