12.07.202116:47 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Bitcoin: Low volatility becomes a problem

Bitcoin continues to trade sluggishly, staying below the level of 34,708.27. Technically, this dynamics leaves preconditions for a decline to support a wide sideways range of 31,082.82 - 41,980.24. But it is unknown when it will reach this border. To do this, you first need to update the lows on June 8-9.

It is very inconvenient to trade BTC/USD with such sluggish dynamics in the middle of the sideways. And it is better to wait for reaching one of the boundaries of the corridor 31,082.82 - 41,980.24. But low volatility also has other side effects - a decrease in the volume of cryptocurrency trading on exchanges.

This is certainly not the main reason, which is a consequence of other global processes. But it certainly plays a role of its own: it is inconvenient to trade speculatively with such sluggish dynamics, which is confirmed by statistical data.

Research data from Monday showed that trading volumes on major cryptocurrency exchanges fell more than 40% in June. The Chinese crackdown on miners was not in vain. The second reason was the decrease in volatility.

Research by London-based CryptoCompare showed that spot trading volumes fell 42.7% to $2.7 trillion, while derivatives trading volumes fell 40.7% to $3.2 trillion.

For the cryptocurrency market, China's policy remains a headwind. A drop in the price and volatility of cryptocurrencies leads to a decrease in spot volumes.

In June, the main cryptocurrency lost more than 6%, hitting its January low. And the upheavals in May, which began with the decision of Elon Musk and intensified by the Chinese ban, cost bitcoin a loss of 35%.

Now that bitcoin is in a narrow range between 30,000 - 35,000, trading volumes are falling. Cryptocurrency is not very interesting with such low volatility. Volumes tend to rise sharply during periods of sharp price fluctuations. In addition, miners are now accumulating coins without selling bitcoin on exchanges.

CryptoCompare also notes that the major cryptocurrency exchange Binance, which has received close attention from regulators around the world, has retained its position as the largest platform in terms of spot trading volume. Nonetheless, sales on Binance fell 56% in June to $668 billion.

Other research from Glassnode and Santiment's analyst team shows optimistic signs in the market.

Mining companies have resumed accumulating bitcoins without selling them. This reduces the pressure on the main cryptocurrency as fewer coins are sold.

In parallel, the recovery of the bitcoin hash rate was noted, which can also be regarded as a positive sign for the market after the Great Mining Migration.

At the end of June, due to the persecution of miners in China, the BTC hash rate collapsed from an all-time high of 171 EH/s to 58 EH/s, reaching its lowest level since 2019. Now the hash rate has partially recovered, reaching 92.5 EH/s.

Against this background, the expectations of a possible reversal of BTC/USD from the support of the sideways 31,082.82 - 41,980.24 upwards and the growth of the cryptocurrency do not lose their relevance in the medium term. But you still have to go down there.