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After the opening of trading, the single European currency was essentially standing still. But shortly before the release of American macroeconomic statistics, it began to actively lose its positions. After that, the data itself did not have any effect, despite the fact that the American statistics turned out to be quite good, especially if we talk about applications for unemployment benefits. Thus, the number of initial appeals decreased by 26 thousand, and repeated ones by another 126 thousand. And even the growth of industrial production by 0.4%, too, did not seem to make any impression. However, on an annualized basis, the growth rate of industrial production slowed from 16.1% to 9.8%. But the annual data are still distorted by the effect of a low base, so it is still quite difficult to draw any conclusions based on them. In any case, the American statistics were quite good, but the single European currency seems to have worked out all this even before the publication of macroeconomic data.
Industrial Production (United States):
Formally, the main event of today is the publication of data on inflation in Europe. However, the market will most likely simply ignore them. The fact is that the final data are published, which will almost certainly coincide with the preliminary estimate, which showed a slowdown in inflation from 2.0% to 1.9%. The market has long incorporated this fact into the value of the single European currency. Only if the final data is not as expected, which is extremely unlikely, we will see some activity. Moreover, this will probably lead to a weakening of the single European currency. If the final data do not coincide with the preliminary estimate, then we will be talking about an increase in inflation. The probability that inflation has fallen more strongly is, in principle, zero.
Inflation (Europe):
But American statistics may affect the situation, and the impact on the dollar will be rather negative. Retail sales growth is likely to slow down from 28.1% to 14.0%, so they are still distorted by the low base effect. Thus, no one will pay attention to them. But in monthly terms, sales may decrease by 0.5%. And we are talking about the main indicator of consumer activity, which is the driver of the American economy. If sales are declining, then the growth rate of the economy will clearly slow down, at best.
Retail Sales (United States):
The EUR/USD currency pair completed the correction process in the area of 1.1850/1.1890 during the last trading day, where there was an increase in the volume of short positions and as a result, a reverse move towards the support level of 1.1800.
The market dynamics continues to show acceleration, where the average daily indicator of the daily candle at the beginning of the week is 70 points.
In the current price location, the process of slowing down along the support level of 1.1800 is visible.
In this situation, it can be assumed that the amplitude move along the level of 1.1800 will play into the hands of speculators, working on the breakdown of a certain deceleration limit of 1.1795/1.1820.
From the point of view of complex indicator analysis, it is clear that technical instruments have a variable signal on the minute interval, while a sell signal is observed on the hourly and daily intervals.
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