23.07.202110:23 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD analysis and forecast for July 23, 2021

It has been repeatedly noted that this week's main event will be the meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) on monetary policy, followed by a press conference of the head of this department, Christine Lagarde.

Market participants were not mistaken in their forecasts that the ECB Governing Council would leave rates unchanged. Let me remind you that the main interest rate in the eurozone is zero, the loan rate remained at 0.25%, and the deposit rate remained at minus 0.50%. At the same time, the ECB Governing Council considers it appropriate to keep rates at their current or even lower levels until inflation reaches the 2% target. As for net asset purchases, there were no changes here either. Their volume remained at the level of 1,850 billion euros, and this will continue until the active phase of COVID-19 is completed. In general, the ECB meeting did not reveal any sensations. All actions to maintain economic activity will be carried out as necessary, specifically until inflation reaches 2% and the COVID-19 pandemic no longer poses a threat to the recovery of the European economy. The date of all these measures and the preservation of rates is planned at least until the middle of 2022.

At her press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde expressed hope that economic activity in the region will return to the pre-pandemic level in the first quarter of 2022. However, this will require a lot of effort, which the European Central Bank is ready for. Lagarde also noted that the lifting of restrictions contributes to stronger economic growth than previously expected. If we return to inflation, the ECB president believes that it will continue to grow in the coming months. However, it will decrease in the first half of next year. Lagarde also characterizes economic risks as generally balanced. The economy is actively recovering. However, a lot will depend on the vaccination process of the population and the course of the coronavirus epidemic. If we characterize the results of the ECB meeting and the press conference of the head of this department, then in general, they were sustained in a neutral and optimistic tone. Nevertheless, this factor could not support the single European currency in pair with the US dollar.

Daily

At yesterday's trading, the EUR/USD pair soared to 1.1830. However, it could not stay near this mark and fell to 1.1770, where it finished trading yesterday's session. As you can see, the red Tenkan line continues to reflect the attempts of euro bulls to raise the quote and acts as a kind of barrier. Without any doubt, we can say that until this line is broken and the price is not fixed above it, there can be no question of any growth. I believe that on the last day of weekly trading, the struggle of the opposing sides will unfold around the support level of 1.1770, as well as the significant mark of 1.1800. The bulls need to break through the Tenkan at all costs and finish today's trading above yesterday's highs shown at 1.1830. Euro bears need to confidently push through the support levels of 1.1770, 1.1752, and close trading below the last mark. In general, I see a bearish mood for the pair. Thus, trading recommendations for today will be reduced to sales, which can be considered after short-term rises in the price zone of 1.1785-1.1815. We will return to a more detailed analysis of EUR/USD on Monday when analysis will be carried out, taking into account the closing of weekly trading.