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On the daily timeframe, bitcoin worked with a margin at the level of $40,700, which acts as the upper limit of the side channel of $29,700 - $40,700, and even rose a little higher. As a result, a new sideways, expanding channel was formed on the daily timeframe. And after working out the verges of the border, we can now expect the quotes to fall below the level of $29,700. In the 4-hour timeframe, the quotes of bitcoin overcame the ascending trend line and entered the Ichimoku cloud. Thus, the fall in quotes should continue to the Senkou Span B line, which lies at $37,000, and continue further down.
We believe that optimism has left traders and investors at this time, because by and large, nothing extraordinary and super-positive has happened for bitcoin in recent weeks. Many experts say that the levels of $29-31 thousand per coin were used by investors for purchases. And we believe that the levels of $40-41 thousand per coin were used for sales. Because now there is no reason for bitcoin to grow even to the highs of the year, let alone something more. The fundamental background is getting worse day by day. China and the United States continue to "tighten the screws" on the cryptocurrency segment, and are going to promote their own tokens – the digital yuan and the digital dollar. They don't need competitors. In America, however, bitcoin will most likely be allowed to live, but its owners will be taxed, and up to 90% of all transactions will be monitored to exclude the possibility of tax evasion by rich and non-Americans. In general, the prospects for bitcoin are not rosy, so at this time all forecasts over $100,000 look just ridiculous. Nevertheless, it should be recognized that bitcoin is still a rather unusual investment tool, so it can also raise a surprise.
Technically, on the 4-hour timeframe, bitcoin quotes began to fall and they can now drop to $37,000. The ascending trend line has been overcome, and there were not so many fundamental reasons for such a strong strengthening of bitcoin. Thus, we believe that bitcoin has exceeded the plan and is now ready to return to those levels that are more fair, and that is – $29,700 per coin and below.
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