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Yesterday, the US dollar was under selling pressure, as risk sentiment in the market increased and the demand for protective assets decreased. In general, there has been an extremely unstable situation in the foreign exchange market recently. Investors are rushing out of the fire and into the flames. The appetite for risk increases, then market participants are concerned about the recovery of the global economy from COVID-19, further steps in the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS). In this regard, market participants expect to hear a more distinct position of the Fed, which the head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, can voice at the economic symposium in Jackson Hole.
It is expected that the timing will be indicated when the Federal Reserve will begin reducing the quantitative easing (QE) program. However, such an unambiguous signal may not be received. Despite the recent and very strong data on the US labor market, some other indicators are still far from pandemic levels. Thus, yesterday's index of manufacturing activity from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond was significantly lower than the previous indicator of 27 and came out at a value of 9. Today, at 11:00 London time, the retail sales index according to the Confederation of British Industrialists will be published. At 13:30 (London time), reports from the United States on durable goods will be received. These statistics may have an impact on the course of today's trading. However, for now, let's turn to the technical picture.
Daily
Following the results of yesterday's trading, a candle with a very small bullish body and equidistant shadows appeared on the daily chart of the GBP/USD currency pair. Such candles, as a rule, signal the uncertainty of the market and difficulties in choosing the direction for further price movement. The attempts of the bulls to continue the rise of the pound were stopped already at 1.3746, and the red line of the Tenkan Ichimoku indicator played an important role in this. Currently, the pair is trading between the orange 200 exponential moving average and the Tenkan line. It is logical to assume that closing today's session above the Tenkan will create prerequisites for further growth to higher prices. If today's trading ends at 200 EMA, there will be prerequisites for further movement in the south direction. In case of a Tenkan breakdown, the next nearest targets at the top will be 1.3785 and 1.3800. Leaving the 200 exponential and the level of 1.3700 will open the way to 1.3660 and 1.3620.
H1
The hourly chart clearly shows that the pair has started consolidation in a fairly narrow trading range. Often, after such consolidations, there is a relatively strong and directed movement in one of the parties. Given this factor, I consider it quite risky to trade in the current narrow range. I suggest waiting for the breakdown of the resistance of 1.3746, and on the rollback to this truly broken level, try buying the pair with small goals. To open sales, I recommend waiting for the breakdown of 1.3700 and the support level of 1.3692, after which, on a rollback to the designated marks, try opening short positions and with small goals.
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