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The wave counting of the 4-hour chart for the Euro/Dollar instrument remains unchanged for the time being. Over the past three days, the instrument has gained about 90 basis points, which gives reason to expect the completion of the construction of a downward trend section. The wave counting of the proposed wave e looks quite convincing, and now the construction of not only a new upward wave but also a new upward trend section can begin. A successful attempt to break through the 100.0% Fibonacci level indirectly indicates the readiness of the markets to buy the instrument. I am not considering the option of complicating the current wave count yet. Thus, I expect an increase in quotes with targets located around the 19th figure, which corresponds to the maximum of wave d. The news background this week remains very weak. There will be almost no important reports. Thus, market activity may also remain very weak.
There was no news background for the Euro/Dollar instrument on Tuesday. Now it all comes down to what Jerome Powell will tell the markets on Friday in Jackson Hole. A lot has already been said on this topic, so I will not repeat myself. There are plenty of opinions now, but all analysts are united by the expectation of important information from the chairman of the Fed. But whether Powell will share this important information is a big question. The situation in America is very unstable right now. The economy has been growing for several quarters in a row, but inflation is also growing, which cannot but strain the markets. Therefore, the Fed is now between two fires. On the one hand, we need to somehow tame inflation. On the other hand, the labor market has not yet fully recovered, and business activity in the manufacturing and services sectors has already begun to decline. Thus, it may not make sense to reduce the asset purchase program from the open market in the near future.
However, I am more interested not in the Fed's actions themselves, but in how the markets will react to them. It is quite easy to assume that Powell's statement on Friday about the tapering of the QE program, or hints about it, or voicing specific dates when the Fed will be ready to start reducing asset purchases, may cause an increase in demand for the US currency. However, the current wave counting just assumes that the downward section of the trend is completed. Thus, either the dollar should not receive strong news, or the news background will conflict with the wave pattern.
Based on the analysis, I conclude that the construction of the downward section could have ended around the level of 1.1704, which is equal to 100.0% according to Fibonacci. Wave e has received a pronounced five-wave internal structure, so now I expect the beginning of building an upward set of waves or complicating the current trend section. The markets are still holding the instrument above the 17th figure, so I advise you to buy euros for each MACD signal "up" in order to build a new upward set.
The wave counting of the higher scale looks quite convincing. We see three three-wave sections of the trend, which are approximately the same in size. However, the last section of the trend quite unexpectedly took a more complex form, but it still ended (presumably) in the same place as the previous three-wave section.
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