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Early in the European session, EUR/USD is trading at around 1.0306. The euro is correcting, having reached a high of 1.0367 after the US inflation announcement.
The euro is trading below the 21 SMA located at 1.0325. A downward move towards 4/8 Murray located at 1.0253 is expected in the next few hours.
On the 1-hour chart, EUR/USD has formed an ascending triangle that was broken. If EUR/USD pair settles below 1.0326 in the next few hours, the technical correction is expected to continue.
The Dollar Index (USDX) is trading above 3/8 Murray after reaching the level of 104.60. If the euro consolidates above this level in the coming hours, it is likely to resume the bullish bias and could return to the resistance area of 106.25.
If the dollar index consolidates above the 200 EMA located at 105.77, it could put downward pressure on the euro and EUR/USD could break the uptrend channel and 1.0239 (200 EMA) and drop towards the level 3/8 Murray at 1.0131.
On the other hand, for the euro to resume its bullish trend, we should expect a daily close and consolidation above 1.0330. Above this level, the currency pair is likely to reach 5/8 Murray at 1.0376 and up to 6/8 Murray at 1.0498.
As EUR/USD is trading below the 21 SMA and below the 5/8 Murray, any pullback towards these levels will be seen as an opportunity to continue selling. If the euro consolidates below 1.0300 in the next few hours, we could sell with targets at 1.0253 (4/8), 1.0239 (200 EMA), and 1.0131 (3/8).
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