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EUR/USD 5M
The EUR/USD pair traded extremely weakly during the first trading day of the new week. It passed around 30 points from the high to the low. This is absolutely minuscule and it is almost impossible to trade with such intraday movements. Thus, to our great regret, we can only wait for the movements to become stronger. Theoretically, macroeconomic reports and important fundamental events can help. But, as practice shows, even with an abundance of both the first and the second, a strong movement is by no means guaranteed (last Friday). Not a single important macroeconomic report was published, and no trading signal generated. Quotes did not even approach any extreme level. The movement had a minimum bias, but what to do with it, if the pair passed about 30 points in half? Thus, the upward trend continues for the EUR/USD pair and we expect the upward trend to resume. But at this rate, it will be formed for another six months.
Overview of the EUR/USD pair. Two speeches by Christine Lagarde are key events of the week.
Review of the GBP/USD pair. Andrew Bailey's speech after a long pause may affect the pound rate.
EUR/USD 1H
The euro/dollar pair, as expected yesterday, dropped to the critical line and to the area of the lower border of the rising channel on the hourly timeframe. Thus, from a technical point of view, now is a great opportunity to resume the upward movement with the 1.1922 target. Unfortunately, the movements remain very weak, so it can take several days to achieve this goal. Consolidating below the channel will indicate a change in trend to a downward trend. On Tuesday, we continue to draw the attention of traders to important levels and lines - 1.1797, 1.1857, 1.1894, 1.1922, as well as the Senkou Span B (1.1754) and Kijun-sen (1.1851) lines. The Ichimoku indicator lines can change their position during the day, which should be taken into account when looking for trading signals. Signals can be rebounds or breakthroughs of these levels and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price moves 15-20 points in the right direction. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. Not a single important macroeconomic report scheduled in the European Union and the United States on September 7. The EU will publish its third quarter GDP report for the second quarter, but we do not believe there will be any market reaction to it. We still advise traders not to leave their computers when this report is published, but there is very little hope for a strong movement. The situation with the fundamental background will not change in any way on Wednesday, so the next two days the EUR/USD pair may continue to be in the weakest movement. Perhaps even sideways.
We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the GBP/USD pair.
COT report
The EUR/USD pair increased by 50 points during the last reporting week (August 24-30). However, despite the fact that the European currency has been growing for two weeks now, the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports continue to signal a reduction in the net position of non-commercial traders, which can only indicate a weakening of the bullish sentiment. The net position of the "non-commercial" group has already dropped to almost zero, which means almost complete equality in the number of open contracts for longs (buying) and shorts (selling) of big players. If we draw the most banal conclusion, then the major players are now looking towards selling the euro. But, as we have already said many times, during such a serious weakening of the bullish sentiment, the EUR/USD pair dropped only 600 points. Recall that the entire upward trend is valued at 1,700 points. So for now, we can only draw the same conclusion as before: big players may be inclined to sell off the euro, but the cash infusions from the Federal Reserve, which have not yet stopped, continue to level the imbalance in supply and demand for the European currency. Simply put, the Fed continues to inject hundreds of billions of dollars into the economy, corny increasing the supply of the dollar in the foreign exchange market and provoking a rise in inflation. Therefore, commercial players can sell off the euro, but the money supply of the dollar is growing at about the same rate (or even more), which leads to a very modest fall of the euro against the dollar, which can end at any moment. The "non-commercial" group opened 11,000 new contacts for shorts during the reporting week, and the total number of Buy and Sell contracts is now in the ratio of 192.5 thousand - 180.5 thousand.
Explanations for the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.
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