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EUR/USD 5M
The EUR/USD pair seems to have begun to move down on Tuesday, still as weak as all movements over the past few months, however, it was after the formation of a strong sell signal that an upward reversal followed, which put an end to the attempts to make money in conditions of low volatility. Recall that weak volatility itself is a negative factor because many false signals are being formed, or, conversely, not a single signal. As a result, traders are forced to either not trade at all, or try to filter out a lot of false signals in order not to get losses. Unfortunately, it is far from always possible to do this. On Tuesday, the pair even had prerequisites for a more or less strong movement. However, market participants passed the reports on GDP in the third estimate in the eurozone and on the mood in the business environment. In the Asian and European trading sessions, the pair barely moved at all, showing volatility equal to 25 points. Only at the US session there were hopes that the quotes would slightly drop, which quickly crashed on the rock of harsh reality. As a result, during the past day, only one signal was formed - to sell - when the quotes exceeded the extremum level of 1.1857 and the critical Kijun-sen line. However, after the formation of this signal, the downward movement is not something that will not continue, it immediately ended, and the price returned to the level of 1.1857. The pair did not settle above this level, therefore, in short positions, it was necessary to manually close them in the late afternoon. But the profit on this deal turned out to be zero.
Overview of the EUR/USD pair. September 8. The funeral of the European currency: the euro/dollar has stopped moving
Overview of the GBP/USD pair. September 8. Bank of England member Michael Saunders collapsed the pound sterling.
EUR/USD 1H
The euro/dollar pair managed to settle below the rising channel on the hourly timeframe. Thus, the trend has changed to a downward one at this time, as well as for the pound. Consequently, in case of breaking the critical line, traders can count on the continuation of the movement to downside with 1.1804 as the target. However, at the same time, the movements of the pair continue to remain very weak, so it is hardly worth counting on a powerful downward movement in the near future. On Wednesday, we continue to draw the attention of traders to important levels and lines - 1.1797, 1.1857, 1.1894, 1.1922, as well as the Senkou Span B (1.1760) and Kijun-sen (1.1851) lines. The Ichimoku indicator lines can change their position during the day, which should be taken into account when looking for trading signals. Signals can be rebounds or breakthroughs of these levels and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price moves 15-20 points in the right direction. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. The only event of the day in the European Union and the United States on September 8 for two will be the publication of the economic survey "Beige Book". And traders can safely ignore this review, because the markets always ignore it. It will be published late at night, when intraday traders will have to close all deals. We also do not expect any "game ahead of the curve" in the case of the "Beige book" review.
We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the GBP/USD pair.
COT report
The EUR/USD pair increased by 50 points during the last reporting week (August 24-30). However, despite the fact that the European currency has been growing for two weeks now, the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports continue to signal a reduction in the net position of non-commercial traders, which can only indicate a weakening of the bullish sentiment. The net position of the "non-commercial" group has already dropped to almost zero, which means almost complete equality in the number of open contracts for longs (buying) and shorts (selling) of big players. If we draw the most banal conclusion, then the major players are now looking towards selling the euro. But, as we have already said many times, during such a serious weakening of the bullish sentiment, the EUR/USD pair dropped only 600 points. Recall that the entire upward trend is valued at 1,700 points. So for now, we can only draw the same conclusion as before: big players may be inclined to sell off the euro, but the cash infusions from the Federal Reserve, which have not yet stopped, continue to level the imbalance in supply and demand for the European currency. Simply put, the Fed continues to inject hundreds of billions of dollars into the economy, corny increasing the supply of the dollar in the foreign exchange market and provoking a rise in inflation. Therefore, commercial players can sell off the euro, but the money supply of the dollar is growing at about the same rate (or even more), which leads to a very modest fall of the euro against the dollar, which can end at any moment. The "non-commercial" group opened 11,000 new contacts for shorts during the reporting week, and the total number of Buy and Sell contracts is now in the ratio of 192.5 thousand - 180.5 thousand.
Explanations for the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.
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