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GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Wednesday performed a fall to the corrective level of 23.6% (1.3731), a rebound from it, and some growth. A descending trend corridor was also built, within which the pair is currently trading and which characterizes the current mood of traders as "bearish." As you can see, the situations for the two key currency pairs are almost identical. However, today, the euro will have an important event that can significantly change the graphical picture. And there is no such event for the pound today. Yesterday's speech by Andrew Bailey did not give any new information. Although the quotes of the British dollar continued to fall in the first half of the day, they almost completely recovered from the fall in the second half. Nevertheless, for the time being, I am waiting for the pound to continue falling. Pressure may remain on the British in the near future since the probability of tightening monetary policy by the Bank of England has significantly decreased recently.
Yesterday, in addition to Governor Andrew Bailey, ILC members Silvana Tenreyro and David Ramsden also made speeches. Tenreyro said that the conditions for a rate hike have not yet been reached, and premature tightening carries long-term risks for the economy. Sir David Ramsden, in turn, said that the current conditions for raising the rate are insufficient. Ben Broadbent also commented on the situation, saying that only the minimum conditions for a rate increase were achieved. All statements together can be regarded as the Bank of England's unwillingness to raise the rate, although a few months ago, there was an active discussion that the British Central Bank could be the first to raise the rate. However, at this time, the key question for the Bank of England is also the question of curtailing the QE program. None of the representatives of the Central Bank of Great Britain raised this issue.
GBP/USD – 4H.
The GBP/USD pair on the 4-hour chart performed a fall to the corrective level of 38.2% (1.3746) after rebounding from 23.6% (1.3870). The consolidation of quotes under this level will increase the probability of a further fall in the levels 1.3690 and 1.3642. The downward corridor on the hourly chart is now important. The closing of the pair's rate above it will indicate the completion of the process of falling quotes. There are no emerging divergences in any indicator today.
News calendar for the USA and the UK:
US - number of initial and repeated applications for unemployment benefits (12:30 UTC).
On Thursday, the calendar of economic events in the UK is empty. And there will be only one report in the US, which is unlikely to attract traders' attention. Thus, the information background today will be very weak, practically absent.
COT(Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report from August 31 for the British showed that the mood of the major players has become a little more "bullish." During the reporting week, speculators closed 2,467 long contracts and 4,809 short contracts. However, the total number of long contracts in the hands of speculators is still less than the total number of short contracts. Therefore, in general, the mood of speculators is now "bearish." However, traders still have big problems with closing at 1.3600, and at this time, the growth of the British dollar quotes continues. Thus, the further fall of the British is not guaranteed. We need graphical sell signals so that they coincide with the data of COT reports.
GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
Today, I recommend buying the pair if there is a rebound from the 1.3747 or 1.3731 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.3792. I recommend new sales of the pound with a target of 1.3692 if a close is made under the level of 1.3731 on the hourly chart.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" are small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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