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The wave counting of the 4-hour chart for the EUR/USD pair remains the same. The pair has been moving more actively in the last couple of days, which leads to a complication of wave b. This is very bad for the current counting since wave b has already turned out to be quite deep compared to wave a. Therefore, a further decline will mean that the corrective wave as part of the next correction section of the trend may end near the low of wave a. In addition, the entire downward section of the trend may resume its construction, which will significantly complicate the wave counting. So far, I consider this scenario as a backup, but the decline in the quotes of the pair on Friday makes us treat it more carefully. Interestingly, the US currency could not increase for a long time, but in the last few days, when there were no special reasons for this, it is growing by leaps and bounds. Thus, the news background may interfere with the execution of the current wave plan.
The news background for the EUR/USD was practically absent on Friday. There were interesting reports in the European Union and the United States last week, but they were crossed out by the movement of the currency pair in the last two days of last week. These days, the US currency has gained a lot. In general, it has been growing for two weeks. And all this happens shortly before the announcement of the results of the Fed meeting, which will be announced on Wednesday, September 22. All analysts agree that the key importance for the market and the dollar will be the Fed's decision on the quantitative easing program, which now amounts to $120 billion per month. Markets are waiting for the Fed to announce its gradual closure. But they may well not wait for this.
Recent economic reports have been quite contradictory, and the members of the monetary committee will take them into account when voting for a particular decision. Inflation in August decreased by only 0.1% YoY. Nonfarm Payrolls turned out to be quite weak compared to the previous two months. Thus, the probability of deciding on a gradual exit from QE is 50/50. The recent rise in the dollar may indicate that the markets believe that the Fed will embark on the path of tightening monetary policy. Therefore, the dollar may rise. However, it will be possible to talk about this with confidence no earlier than Wednesday. Now it is very important that the quotes do not fall below the low of the wave e before Wednesday, otherwise, the entire wave counting will require adjustments. And on Wednesday, the movements can be very strong, which can add even more confusion.
Based on the analysis, I conclude that the construction of the downward wave b may be completed soon. Therefore, I still expect an increase in the quotes of the pair and advise buying with targets located near the 1.1965 and 1.2036 marks, which corresponds to 50.0% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels, for each MACD signal "up." As a confirmation of this assumption, we can wait for a new successful attempt to break through the 23.6% Fibonacci level. It is best to do this since wave b may take on a more complex form and even the entire wave count may change if the decline continues.
The wave counting of the higher scale looks quite convincing. We see three three-wave sections of the trend, which are approximately the same in size. However, the last section of the trend quite unexpectedly took a more complex form, but it still ended in the same place as the previous three-wave section.
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