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The energy crisis in Europe has recently been the main driver of prices in the market. Yesterday, however, the focus shifted towards the United States government debt. Oddly enough, the greenback was strengthening despite the possibility of a default or a shutdown. It all seems like mere speculation and reminds us of the adage "buy the rumor, sell the news". After all, Democrats and Republicans had to reach some kind of agreement no later than September 30 or they would risk running out of cash.
The situation escalated day by day. Yesterday, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer announced that the pirates agreed to raise the debt ceiling temporarily to avoid a default and a shutdown. The voting in the Senate is scheduled for today. There is no doubt that it will go well. After that, the government will have time until December 3 to approve the new budget and the debt limit. The situation seems to have somewhat stabilized. The worst is behind. Therefore, it comes as no surprise that the US dollar is bullish.
A decrease in the pound sterling only confirmed the fact that the market was no longer interested in any macroeconomic data. Thus, the UK's Q2 GDP has recently been published. The report revealed that the British economy expanded by 23.6% y/y in the second quarter, above initial estimates of a 22.2% increase, and rebounding from a 6.1% contraction in the previous period. Despite the strong results, the pound remains bearish. All in all, the agreement between Democrats and Republicans only increases the dollar's attractiveness, while the energy crisis in Europe will not go anywhere. Moreover, three other energy suppliers have gone bust in the United Kingdom.
United Kingdom GDP:
Final Q2 GDP will be published today in the US. The economy is estimated to accelerate to 12.2% versus 0.5% in the previous period. The market is unlikely to react to the data because the reading is expected to come in line with the preliminary estimate. At the same time, the US jobless claims report should log a 16K decrease in initial claims and a 2K rise in continuing claims. The mixed results are likely to offset each other. This is probably for the best, as all the attention will be on the voting in the Senate.
United States Continuing Jobless Claims:
The pound has lost almost 300 pips for 2 trading days. The quote plunged to 1.3411, signaling the oversold market.
The RSI confirmed the signal by moving below 30. The indicator's lowest level is 21.02 (H4).
The daily chart shows not just the continuation of the downward cycle that began in June, but an attempt to change the medium-term trend.
Outlook:
The pair's overbought status along with the swing low of 1.3411 may well trigger a decrease in the volume of short positions. This, in turn, may lead to a technical correction. At the same time, the downward trend may extend due to high speculative interest. In this case, consolidation below 1.3400 may indicate an increase in the volume of short positions.
In terms of complex indicator analysis, technical indicators are signaling to sell the pair for short-term, mid-term, and intraday trading amid the extension of the downward trend.
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