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Gold prices finished last week in positive territory, boosted by the rapid spread of the Omicron strain. Many countries in Europe enact strict lockdowns across Europe in the run-up to winter holidays, as traders estimate Omicron's potential impact on the global economy.
The asset edged up 1.1% last week, gaining $40 since Wednesday in its first weekly upsurge since mid-November, as the markets reacted to the Fed's hawkish policy shift.
"There is some skepticism about whether the Fed will be able to follow through on what the FOMC and Powell indicated this week. Three rate hikes could be unlikely. That's the classic playbook for the Fed — try to use rhetoric and public communications to influence market behavior without having to change monetary policy," Everett Millman, precious metals expert at Gainesville Coins said.
Millman added that the Federal Reserve is likely to give up its hawkish strategy and announce the continuation of monetary stimulus in 2022, which would benefit gold.
Last week, the precious metal also found support in growing concerns over the rapid spread of the new strain of COVID-19. On Friday, gold gained 0.4% or $6.70 and closed at $1,804.90. The asset breached the key psychological level of $1,800 for the first time since November 22.
SIA Wealth Management's chief market strategist Colin Cieszynski attributed gold's jump above $1,800 to "broad capital flows leaving risk markets...and moving into defensive havens"
On Sunday, top US pandemic advisor Anthony Fauci warned that the Omicron strain could lead to a "bleak" winter.
Although the US could likely avoid a strict lockdown, hospitals could still be under severe pressure, particularly in areas with low vaccination rate, Fauci added.
He urged Americans to get vaccinated and exercise extreme caution while travelling during the winter holidays.
On Sunday, a strict lockdown was enacted in the Netherlands. The UK's Secretary of State for Health and Social Care Sajid Javid stated fresh restrictions could be imposed before Christmas. The Omicron strain has become the dominant variant of COVID-19 in the country.
Market players are concerned that the upsurge of infections caused by Omicron would lead to stricter restrictions across Europe and jeopardize the world's economy in 2022.
Gold is hovering near the 3-week high early on Monday, boosted by COVID risks. The asset's further movement near the strong resistance level of $1,800 would be the next important signal for the market.
"One thing that could trigger a strong move in gold is if we see Omicron jitters settle in, could trigger panic selling. Traders might resort to selling gold," OANDA senior market analyst Edward Moya commented.
Moya also noted that gold prices could slump this week due to low volatility typically observed in late December. "December is the hardest month to trade," he added.
"We're at the end of the month, end of the quarter, and approaching the end of the year. I expect very low trading volumes next week with the holiday coming up," Everett Millman said. "Gold could pull back below $1,800 just because there's going to be low volumes in volatility."
Any sign of an uneven economic recovery or delayed monetary tightening by the Fed could give support for gold as a safe-haven asset.
This week, traders are advised to keep a close eye on US Q3 GDP, PCE price index, and durable goods orders data releases.
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