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The Fed left the refinancing rate at the same level, which should have led to at least a temporary rebound in the currency market and a clear weakening of the US dollar considering the speculation on this topic. However, that did not happen. Instead, the US currency began to steadily increase. The thing is that the position of the regulator has become noticeably tougher. First, the Federal Open Market Committee has decided to accelerate the pace of curtailing the quantitative easing program. In particular, the volume of government bond repurchases will decrease by $ 20 billion from February, and mortgage mortgages by $ 10 billion. Previously, they were reduced by 10 and 5 billion dollars, respectively. This means that the rate of curtailment of the program has doubled, which is quite significant. Secondly, the regulator made a serious hint that an increase in the refinancing rate will still take place in March.
The fact is that only inflation was mentioned earlier as an argument for such actions. Yesterday, the labor market was mentioned along with it in the context that it reached the optimal level. Further improvement on the labor market threatens with overheating, which should not be allowed under any circumstances. The consequences will be much more devastating from rising inflation. So, the Fed is clearly concerned about this issue, which means it does not intend to wait and postpone the increase in interest rates until the markets are ready for it. These same markets now have only a month and a half. Consequently, the trend for the strengthening of the US dollar will continue.
The EUR/USD pair has broken through a number of important levels during its sharp decline, strongly indicating that the downward trend is still relevant in the market. Now, there is a local low (1.1186) from November 24 last year, the area of which can only temporarily hold back the pressure of sellers.
Unlike its European counterpart, the GBP/USD pair has a downward margin under it. Therefore, the pound's recent weakening is only the beginning of a long course. It should be noted that keeping the price below the level of 1.3400 in a four-hour period will increase interest in short positions.
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