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US banks could see high growth from taking deposits and lending money in 2022 thanks to the growth of the US economy and the first federal funds rate hike in 3 years.
The Federal Reserve's actions could put an end to the low interest rate, which banks have face throughout most of the past decade.
During the lockdown, net interest income, which is the difference between what banks earn from lending and pay out on deposits and other funds, declined due to interest rate cuts and a drop in borrowing. This situation should change in 2022.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve signaled it is likely to raise interest rates in March.
"Banks that, for the last ten years, were not able to enjoy a steady yield curve are going to get it. It's likely to provide significant growth in net income interest revenues in 2022," said Ken Leon, research director at CFRA Research.
According to Barclays analyst Jason Goldberg, net median income constituted 60% of revenue in for the median bank among the biggest two dozen in the United States. That was the lowest proportion in six years and down from 66% three years ago
JPMorgan Chase & Co. reported that net interest income from its businesses beyond securities markets could increase to $50 billion in 2022 from $44.5 billion last year - a 12% increase.
Wells Fargo & Co. said its net income could rise by 8% in 2022.
Some banks will benefit more than others, depending on their ability to maintain low-cost deposits and use them for investing in higher-yielding securities. Banks with portfolios weighted toward floating-rate loans will benefit more.
Goldberg stated that balance sheets of some banks are more sensitive to interest rates, and that increases to net interest income will continue in 2023.
According to analysts from Bank of America Corp., who were not specific in their outlook, they expected the year to bring robust growth in net interest income. It could rise from "a couple of hundred million" dollars more in the first quarter on top of its $11.4 billion in the fourth quarter.
Economists at Citigroup Inc. said they would not provide estimates on net interest income until an "Investor Day" on March 2. However, the bank's CFO Mark Mason said Citigroup would receive support for net interest income from higher interest rates and global interest rates and from putting more of its cash into loans and securities.
The changing outlook for interest rates will make forecasting net interest income uncertain, Citibank's executives said. Other factors also support an increase.
According to JPMorgan, interest rate changes constitute only 1/3 of the expected net interest income increase, with most of the rise expected to come from loan growth.
Wells Fargo said that higher rates account for almost two-thirds of the increase. The rest is supplied by loan growth and balance sheet changes.
Analyst Ken Usdin of Jefferies commented that net interest income for major banks will rise with or without the higher rates from the Fed.
US banks expect to lend more to businesses, particularly companies wishing to build inventories after losing sales to supply chain interruptions.
Both JPMorgan and Citigroup stated they expect more interest income from credit card users who resume incurring interest charges instead of paying down their balances, as they have done during the pandemic.
The majority of bank executives do not expect more than a modest hike in deposit rates.
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