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XAU/USD notched a new high at 1,865 during the American session due to a weak dollar and weak Treasury bonds.
XAU/USD is trading above the daily pivot point of 1,850 and within the uptrend channel formed on the 4-hour chart. We can observe a bullish bias, albeit showing exhaustion levels that are reflected in the last bearish candles with some reversal signals.
Gold is consolidating gains at around 1,850 after the publication of the FOMC minutes. As long as it trades above the key level of 1,850, there is a chance that the XAU/USD pair could continue its rally in the coming days and may reach the resistance zone of 1,875 (8/8 Murray).
US Treasuries bonds play an important role in the direction of gold. The 10-year Treasury yields have dipped to 3.699% with a bearish signal, which could favor the strength of the gold because they are inversely correlated.
Therefore, if XAU/USD maintains gains above 1,850, it could be a positive sign for the bulls and in the short term, the metal could reach the psychological level of $1,900.
In case XAU/USD falls below 1,850, the price is expected to decline to the 21 SMA located at 1,835. A return below 1,830 could be a clear sign of a technical reversal with a bearish correction. The instrument might reach the bottom of the bullish channel and the 6/8 Murray support at 1,812.
If XAU/USD recovers to levels above 1,850, it would reinforce the bullish outlook. Conversely, a drop below 1,835 could trigger a reversal, leaving gold vulnerable.
Our trading plan for the next few hours is to sell below 1,850 with targets at 1,835. In case gold continues to rise, we should expect it to reach the resistance zone of the top of the uptrend channel around 1,867 to sell, with targets at 1,850 and at 1,835.
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