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The dollar index again experienced bullish support after a three-day downward correction. There are at least two reasons for such a move: demand for risk has fallen, and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has not stinted on hawkish comments. In addition, the US economic outlook has significantly improved after the release of a number of economic reports. Retail sales exceeded expectations and markets began to play back the fact that the Fed will cope better with inflation compared to other major world central banks.
The positive retail report reduced investors' fears that the US economy will face a recession. The absence of important reports from other major countries also benefited, as the focus was completely shifted to the appeal of US assets, which supported the dollar.
Powell's speech on Tuesday was positively received by traders, including due to the openness of the head of the central bank. There were no riddles and hints. The central bank is throwing all its strength into the fight against inflation, in the previous two meetings the rate will be raised by 50 bps both times. This is practically a settled issue. If necessary, due to resistance from inflationary growth, the rate will be raised above the neutral level. At the same time, Powell stressed that its increase by 75 bps is not yet being discussed.
After Powell's statements, market players shifted their expectations for the terminal rate this year. The chances that the rate will be in the range of 300-325 bp by December increased from 21.4 to 23.1%.
The rebound of the dollar now looks quite confident, but the correction still remains on the agenda. A further decline in the US currency index may lead to a re-testing of the bears of the 102.30 area, which acts as a very strong support.
For the EUR/USD pair, there is a corrective recovery after testing the 2017 low at 1.0341. The current rebound of the dollar slightly spoiled the euro bulls' plans and on Wednesday the exchange rate fell again, within the day the losses exceeded half a percent.
The chances of visiting the 1.0640 level still remain, but the flight from risk observed on Wednesday does not leave bulls with a chance to stay above the 5th figure. If it is not possible to maintain the level of 1.0500 in the short term, bears will come into play. This is a key support in the near term.
The European Central Bank's hawkish comments were certainly positive for the euro and strengthened its recovery movement, but this is not enough. The ECB is still only discussing the possibility of tightening policy. An increase in the rate by 50 bps may occur after the indicators of the coming months will indicate an increase and accumulation of inflation.
The short-term resistance in the pair is marked at 1.0593, and then comes the more important area of 1.0620. Its breakthrough may indicate that the short-term base has already been formed and the euro is starting a deeper recovery in the area of 1.0758. This barrier is still far from reality. It will be extremely difficult to overcome it, the quote may not come close to it at all.
Support is expected at 1.0482. A break of 1.0430 will clear the way for a new test of the 1.0350 area.
Strong dollar positions do not allow gold to strengthen investor confidence. The precious metal does not cope with its supposed function of hedging political and economic risks. Gold prices jumped after the situation in Ukraine began, but after touching the high around $2000 per ounce, the growth ended, then the swing began, which continues to this day.
Gold can only count on random growth, which will be triggered by sharp changes in the stock markets or the Fed's statements about a recession or against the background of other extremely unpleasant events for the global economy.
Bears are setting the tone and for now this trend will remain in force, analysts say. The current week started with a correction, as a result of which the price fell below $1800. Then bulls re-entered the game, dropping the price to $1836 and aiming for $1850. As gold approaches the oversold zone, the $1880-1900 dollar levels may come into play next.
The bears' target is still $1,780-$1,750. Against the background of such contradictions, a surge in volatility may occur.
Given that the main trend remains a decline, bears are likely to massively open short positions and try to break down the $1,800-1,750 mark.
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