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The EUR/USD currency pair continued to fall on Monday, not so strong, but still. Not a single important report was published during the first trading day of the week, so, in fact, traders had nothing to react to. Nevertheless, the euro continued to fall, and we said in our previous articles that by the first days of the week it will be possible to determine whether the market reacted to important events at the end of last week or whether it is again set to sell the euro, no matter what. As you can see, the second option won over the first. At this time, it is impossible even to form a trend line, since the fall is almost non-retractable, very short-term, and there are simply no two points by which to build it. The euro is already approaching its 20-year lows and is likely to overcome them. Thus, within a few months, the currency may fall to price parity, which some traders do not even remember when this was the last time. Everything remains very bad for the currency of the European Union...
The technical picture looks good on the 5-minute timeframe. Of course, there were some false signals, since the movement was much weaker than on Friday. The first buy signal was formed when the price rebounded from the level of 1.0465. The pair managed to go up after this signal by only 11 points, so it was not possible for traders to place the Stop Loss order to breakeven. Then the pair formed two sell signals, which duplicated each other. First, the price settled below the level of 1.0465, and then rebounded from it from below. After these signals, the pair went down about 30 points, and the deal had to be closed manually in the late afternoon. Thus, by the end of the day, beginners certainly did not lose. They may even have made a small profit. The following days of the week will be more saturated in fundamental and macroeconomic terms, so volatility may be higher than on Monday.
The pair left the horizontal channel on the 30-minute timeframe and formed a new downward trend. There is no trend line or channel yet, but the euro has already shown an impressive drop and continues to decline. Unfortunately, the most important event of the week - the Federal Reserve meeting - with a 99% probability will not be in favor of the euro, which means that the single currency may fall even more. The only hope is that traders have already worked out the Fed's rate hike and will no longer buy the dollar on Thursday. On the 5-minute TF, it is recommended to trade at the levels of 1.0354, 1.0389, 1.0465, 1.0532, 1.0564, 1.0607. When passing 15 points in the right direction, you should set Stop Loss to breakeven. There will be nothing interesting in macroeconomic or fundamental terms in the European Union and America. Thus, traders will have nothing to pay attention to again. Now even geopolitical news is almost non-existent. However, Monday showed that the pair can move in a trend now even without news and events.
1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one, when all deals must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
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