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Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair
EUR/USD tested 1.0491 yesterday. At that time, the MACD line had been in the oversold area for quite a long time, so the pair rose to 1.0523. Buyers tried to push the higher quote, but the MACD line was already far from zero, so the upside potential was limited. Meanwhile, sell-offs around the level led to a price decline of more than 70 pips.
Although the speech of ECB chief Christine Lagarde did little to help euro, its price still rose, thanks to the data on EU consumer confidence and Germany's inflation. The increase, however, did not last long because the statements of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and FOMC member James Bullard brought back the demand for dollar, which led to a decline in EUR/USD.
Ahead are important reports that could drive the market such as labor market data in Germany and the Euro area. There will also be another speech fom Lagarde, but its contents will most likely be the same as her earlier ones. In the afternoon, a report on personal consumption expenditures, jobless claims and business activity will be released in the US, all of which may push dollar higher. That is likely to result in a further decline in EUR/USD.
For long positions:
Buy euro when the quote reaches 1.0486 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0537 (thicker green line on the chart). There is a chance for a rally today, but only after strong statistics in the Euro area. Also, make sure that when buying, the MACD line is above zero or is starting to rise from it. Euro can also be bought at 1.0442, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0486 and 1.0537.
For short positions:
Sell euro when the quote reaches 1.0442 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0396. Pressure will return if Germany reports weak economic data and if ECB chief Christine Lagarde says dovish rhetoric on monetary policy. However, when selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero or is starting to move down from it. Euro can also be sold at 1.0486, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0442 and 1.0396.
What's on the chart:
The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the EUR/USD pair.
The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.
The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the EUR/USD pair.
The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.
MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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