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On July 28, the government released a preliminary estimate of GDP for the second quarter. The report shows that in the second quarter of 2022, year-on-year GDP declined by 0.9%. Earlier this year, the BEA reported a 1.6% decline in first-quarter GDP. The generally accepted definition of a recession is an economic downturn for two consecutive quarters.
This means that the US is currently in or about to enter a recession, which is why Friday's jobs report is so important. Friday's jobs report will provide the data needed to determine whether the US economy is in recession. Fear of a disappointing jobs report put pressure on US Treasury yields and the dollar fell on Thursday.
The dollar's weakness was certainly the reason for the sharp rise in gold.
Dollar weakness was $10.25 from Thursday's $25.60 rise in spot gold prices.
Fears of heightened geopolitical uncertainty.
Traders are raising rates on the precious yellow metal not only because of economic uncertainty, but also because of geopolitical uncertainty and heightened risks that began after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi arrived in Taiwan on Tuesday. Pelosi has become the highest-ranking US official to visit Taiwan in 25 years. Shortly after her arrival, she announced the United States' unwavering commitment to supporting Taiwan's emerging democracy.
China's reaction to the visit and Pelosi's statements was immediate and was strongly expressed not only in statements, but also in the demonstration of military force. According to Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Pelosi's visit was irresponsible and irrational.
China has demonstrated its military might by launching the largest military exercise in the Taiwan Strait immediately after Pelosi's visit. During the exercise, China fired several missiles. China fired at least 11 ballistic missiles into the waters around Taiwan's northeast and southwest coasts, according to sources in Taiwan. Japan said five Chinese missiles also landed in its waters.
The combination of external and internal uncertainty is significantly raising the demand for gold. Concern that the United States economy has slipped into recession has reduced the demand for and appeal of US Treasury bonds and the dollar as a safe-haven asset. Fear fueled by geopolitical uncertainty and the risks associated with Pelosi's visit to Taiwan and a strong Chinese reaction have led to strong bullish sentiment in safe-haven assets such as gold and silver.
However, one critical technical milestone must occur to confirm that market sentiment has turned bullish. The milestone is easy to spot, gold should be trading much higher than $1880.
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