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This week is filled important economic data, which will have significant impact on investors and overall dynamics of global financial markets.
The first thing to pay attention to is the minutes of the July Fed meeting, where markets will see clues on whether the central bank will pause raising rates in August, then decrease in September. The process will largely depend on the behavior of the stock markets and dollar.
The next key event is the release of retail sales data in the US, which will show how serious problems are in the US economy. This will also influence the decision of the Fed on rates.
Another important report is the data on consumer inflation in the eurozone and the UK. Their numbers will determine if the ECB and the Bank of England will extend their rate hike, as well as give clues over its pace. These will have noticeable impact on local stock markets and, of course, on the forex market. Continued inflation will prompt central banks to continue rattling up rates, driving their economies into recession.
Also this week are the release of preliminary data on Q2 GDP in the Euro area, employment report in Australia, and consumer inflation data in Canada. There will also be a meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, where rates are expected to increase by 0.50% to 3.00%.
But again, the main drivers of markets will be the FOMC minutes, retail sales data in the US, and consumer inflation reports in the UK and the eurozone. Trading may become turbulent this week as some data may shift investors' ideas over the upcoming developments in the markets.
Forecasts for today:
EUR/USD
The pair is trading above the support level of 1.0235. Further selling pressure may push quotes to 1.0150.
USD/CAD
The pair is trading below 1.2815. The decline in crude oil prices, as well as the negative start of trading in Europe, may lead to continued local growth to 1.2940.
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