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Bitcoin again managed to stay above the $18,500 level and bounced off it for either the fifth or tenth time. At the same time, it continues to be located below the descending trend line, as well as inside the horizontal channel of $18,500 - $24,350. So we have an important level, an important channel and an important trend line. And in one way or another, these technical formations contradict each other. At the moment, bitcoin is in a position where all three of these formations may not conflict with each other yet. The price can be above the $18,500 level, inside the horizontal channel and below the trend line at the same time. But it won't last forever. Sooner or later, the price will cross the trend line, and it will be canceled, for example. Thus, in the current circumstances, you need to wait. We said that cautious purchases in case of a rebound from important lines and levels are possible, so now traders could even make a small profit due to another failure to overcome the $18,500 level. At the same time, we continue to expect that the fall will resume, and even a new collapse is possible.
The fundamental background remains very difficult for bitcoin. Not only that, all risky assets now remain in the "risk zone". Moreover, the geopolitical situation is such that everything can easily end in a world war. Not only do central banks continue to tighten monetary policy, and there is no end in sight to this process. So also most of the technical factors speak in favor of the further fall of the cryptocurrency. And what is working now in favor of bitcoin? What factors, at least theoretically, can help it start a new bullish trend, which cannot be completely dismissed either? From our point of view, the first such factor is randomness. If at some point big players start buying bitcoin en masse, this may attract "hamsters" to the market who will support the initiative of "whales". However, for obvious reasons, it is impossible to predict when this process may begin. Further, possible easing in the regulation of the cryptocurrency market may return interest in bitcoin among investors. The collapse of the US currency may return traders' interest in bitcoin. The refusal of central banks from the policy of tightening monetary policy. All these factors, except the first one, are impossible at this time.
On the 24-hour timeframe, the quotes of bitcoin could not overcome the level of $24,350, but they also could not overcome the level of $18,500 (127.2% Fibonacci). Thus, we have a horizontal channel and it is unknown how much more time bitcoin will spend in it. We recommend not to rush to open positions. It is much better to wait for the price to exit this channel, and only then open the corresponding transactions. Overcoming the $18,500 level will open the way to the $12,426 level. You can also use rebound signals (from the trend line or the upper/lower border of the channel).
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