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The EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Tuesday, following the pound. There were no important macroeconomic events during the day that could trigger such growth. The volatility of the day was more than 100 points, therefore, most likely, the euro really follows the pound and shows with all its appearance that it does not intend to resume the downward trend in the near future. In principle, from a technical point of view, this is logical, since the euro has been falling against the dollar for a long time, the time has come for at least a strong correction. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's speech takes place around this time, so it certainly could not affect the pair's movement during the day. Thus, we have a technical, corrective growth of the euro, and this is very dangerous for medium-term traders, because, given the fundamental and geopolitical background, the pair can resume to fall with renewed vigor at any moment. Indeed, over the past week, both of these backgrounds have not changed at all and remain the same as they were during the long and strong fall of the euro. Therefore, you should be careful with long positions for the long-term.
There were quite a large number of trading signals on the 5-minute timeframe on Tuesday. The problem was not quite familiar to traders - too many levels, which are located at a distance of 40-50 points from each other. Thus, when one or another signal was formed, the price almost immediately found itself near the next level, from which a rebound could follow. Therefore, not all signals should have been worked out, although Tuesday's movement was not bad. From our point of view, it was necessary to work out the fourth signal - to buy near the level of 0.9877. All subsequent signals were also buy signals, so there was no need to duplicate longs. Longs should have been closed only on a rebound from the level of 0.9952, which turned out to be very accurate. Profit on this transaction amounted to about 50 points.
The ascending channel has been transformed on the 30-minute timeframe and once again points to an upward trend. As we have already found out, the current growth is purely corrective, but it can also continue for some time. Traders need to be afraid of new negative news of a geopolitical nature, which cannot be predicted in advance. Consolidating below the channel will cancel the upward trend. On the 5-minute TF on Wednesday it is recommended to trade at the levels 0.9748-0.9753, 0.9845, 0.9877, 0.9910, 0.9952, 1.0020-1.0034, 1.0072. When passing 15 points in the right direction, you should set Stop Loss to breakeven. The European Union will publish an index of business activity in the service sector. Similar indices in two versions (S&P and ISM) will be published in the US. An important ADP report will also be released. Now the market is set to buy the euro, so those reports that will be in favor of the euro can be worked out with double force.
1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the US one, when all deals must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
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