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The GBP/USD pair, as we expected, continued its downward movement on Thursday. The downside potential of the pound sterling is such that it can fall for a couple more days and still remain inside the rising channel, which keeps the upward trend relevant. Volatility also remains high, for example, it was already 190 points on Thursday. And by the end of the day there might be more. No important macroeconomic statistics published either in the US or in the UK, so traders had nothing to react to during the day. Nevertheless, this again did not prevent the pair from trading volatilely, and most importantly, in a trendy way! Therefore, novice traders could count on good profits. By and large, now it all comes down to whether the pound will be able to leave the rising channel. If this happens, then the chances of its further growth will drop sharply, and the currency itself will rush back to its all-time lows. We do not completely exclude this option, although the sharp and strong growth over the past two weeks is more evidence that the long-term downward trend is over. Nevertheless, the fundamental and geopolitical backgrounds remain difficult for the pound, so the possibility of its new collapse cannot be completely ruled out.
In regards to Thursday's trading signals on the 5-minute timeframe today, everything was just fine. Early in the morning, at the opening of the European trading session, a sell signal was formed near the level of 1.1356, and a couple of hours later it was duplicated. Novice players could open two short positions on these signals. The first one closed at breakeven by Stop Loss, as the price managed to go down more than 20 points. As part of the second position, the price managed to fall to the area of 1.1200-1.1211-1.1236, where it was necessary to take profits, since it was already approaching evening at that time. Profit on this transaction amounted to at least 70 points. Thus, another very successful day came out for beginners.
The pound/dollar pair continues to remain within the ascending channel on the 30-minute TF. Volatility remains high, and the pound moves in any direction, even without the help of a fundamental or macroeconomic background. After the pair has risen in price by 1100 points, a downward correction is a normal scenario. The pound has the opportunity to fall another 200 points. Next, it will be decided whether the new upward trend will continue. On the 5-minute TF on Friday it is recommended to trade at the levels of 1.0927, 1.1024, 1.1200-1.1211-1.1236, 1.1356, 1.1443, 1.1479, 1.1550, 1.1608. When the price passes after opening a deal in the right direction for 20 points, Stop Loss should be set to breakeven. No interesting events planned in the UK, and in the US we have the reports on the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NonFarm Payrolls) and unemployment. Both are very important, and the market must certainly work them out! One can only guess how much the already high volatility will grow.
1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the US one, when all deals must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
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