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European stock indexes rose and the US dollar fell after Federal Reserve meeting minutes revealed that policymakers support more moderate interest rate hikes. The Stoxx Europe 600 extended its recent rally thanks to a better performance by the real estate sector, supported by the prospect of more gradual rate hikes.
Trading volumes are expected to be lower today due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the US. US stock index futures were up yesterday, with the S&P 500 closing at a two-month high.
FOMC meeting minutes showed that several policymakers backed the idea of slowing the pace of rate hikes at the end of the year, even though some stressed the need for a higher interest rate. This increases expectations that the Fed will raise rates by only 50 basis points next month, ending its streak of giant 75 bps hikes.
Many economists note that the November meeting marked the start of the Fed's dovish shift. However, the regulator heading toward a rate slowdown does not mean there will be rate cuts anytime soon. According to the Fed minutes, policymakers also voiced fears of an impending recession, and yesterday's data releases confirmed them. US business activity declined and jobless claims surged as the economy cooled.
The US dollar index plunged deeper in today's trading in its third straight day of losses. Demand for risky assets has increased. There is no US Treasury bond trading today due to the holiday in the US.
Crude oil declined as the EU set a higher-than-expected price cap on Russian oil. The Russian Foreign Ministry stated afterwards that Russia would stop oil exports to countries that would join the price cap plan.
Meanwhile, Bank of America Corp. pointed out that despite the expected "policy thaw" by the regulator, its clients continue to shift to bonds and turn away from equities amid fears of an imminent recession. Bond funds have climbed for the 39th week in a row. Fund managers prefer to hold bonds in the first half of 2023, with stocks only becoming more attractive in the second half of next year.
Gold advanced for a third straight day after the release of the Fed meeting minutes. The precious metal has been hit hard by the Fed's aggressive policy, which has driven up bond yields and the US dollar. Meanwhile, USD has plummeted by 16% from its March high.
Investors are also concerned about the record-high number of COVID-19 infections in China.
On the technical side, the S&P 500 made a successful upward move yesterday. The main task for bulls now is to hold the support level of $4,000. As long as the index remains above this level, the demand for risky assets should remain high. This will allow the trading instrument to advance and regain control of $4,038. Above this level lies $4,064. A breakout above this level will make further upward correction towards resistance at $4,091 more likely. The most distant target is $4,116. In case of downward movement, the buyers will have to act near the key psychological level of $4,000. If the S&P 500 breaks below this level, it will quickly push the trading instrument down to $3,968. From there it might test the support at $3,942.
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