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On Friday, US stock index futures traded in a constrained range with a marginally negative value. It reflects the cautious investor sentiment on the world's financial markets ahead of a crucial monthly employment report that could provide insight into how far the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in the coming months.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.2%, although both indices still showed growth for a second straight week. The weight of the European Stoxx 600 index has only slightly increased, continuing a seven-week streak of weight gains, while the industrial Dow Jones is trading nearly unchanged.
Investors are not ready to buy stocks further until they are convinced that the situation in the labor market will force the Federal Reserve to act even more dovish, has received support in the middle of the week due to the relaxation of China's strict stance on COVID and the signals of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Bets on the precise location of the US central bank's interest rate peak have dropped below 4.9%, according to the swap market. The benchmark currently lies between 3.75% and 4%.
As mentioned above, the Friday employment report may mark the turning point that Fed officials hope to achieve in their battle against inflation. According to the average forecast, there will be 200,000 more jobs created in November than in October, a much smaller increase than in the month before.
It's crucial to realize that there is a good chance the American economy will enter a recession next year if the labor market turns. Due to the Fed's lack of interest in this issue, ultra-rapid easing and policy easing are not expected in the medium term. After yesterday's data revealed that manufacturing activity fell in November for the first time since May 2020, it is clear that worries about the recession have intensified.
The yield on ten-year Treasury bonds decreased by 45 basis points last month and is currently holding just below 2.5-month lows.
The easing of Chinese restrictions, the Biden administration's calls to halt sales of US strategic reserves, and the decision by the OPEC group of oil producers to reduce oil supplies all contributed to oil's most significant weekly gain in nearly two months.
Regarding the S&P 500's technical picture, the index stays within the side channel, demonstrating the traders' pause. Today's top priority will be safeguarding $4,064 in cash. While trading will take place above $4,064, we should anticipate a rise in interest in risky assets. This will create favorable conditions for the trading instrument to strengthen and grow to $4,091, potentially reaching $4,116, especially in light of the disappointing labor market data. The slightly higher level of $4,150 is where the hope for a further upward correction with an exit to the resistance of $ 4,184 will be strengthened. The only requirement for buyers in the event of a downward movement is to declare themselves around $4,064 since, below this price, the index will once again come under pressure. The trading instrument will move to $4,038 quickly if this range is broken, with the $4,003 region serving as the farthest target.
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