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The GBP/USD pair made a new reversal in favor of the US currency, according to the hourly chart, and it anchored below the level of 1.2342. By day's end, the quotes had returned to this level; the recovery from it will now act in favor of the US dollar, and the descent towards the level of 1.2238 will resume. The likelihood of the pair's rate resuming growth toward the level of 1.2432 will rise if it closes above the level of 1.2342. Fixing below the trend line, in my opinion, is a crucial point that can shift the sentiment of traders from bullish to pessimistic.
Yesterday, reports on business activity in the UK let down the bulls. They were counting on higher index values, but in reality, just a very minor upward trend could be seen in all three indices. After its publication, the Briton dropped hard, but it was still able to bounce back in the afternoon. Although it is obvious that the bears are not yet capable of superactive behavior, they are increasingly taking the initiative. They must keep working today, or the bulls will quickly seize control of the situation. Today's information landscape is essentially empty, but this shouldn't deter sellers.
This week won't have a lot of news or significant occurrences. We won't hear from officials from either central bank before their meetings, which will take place the following week at the Bank of England and the Fed, respectively. There will just be normal statistics left, although there won't be many reports. A producer pricing index for the UK is scheduled for release today; while many traders view this index as significant and closely tied to inflation, I do not. There won't be any significant reports on Thursday or Friday. Thus, the bears will have to verify the seriousness of their intentions by deed and without the use of information support.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair has maintained above the corrective level of 127.2% (1.2250), which gives us confidence in additional gains to the next Fibo level of 100.0% (1.2674). Today there are no new emerging divergences. The likelihood that the pair will fall to the next level of 1.2008 may rise if the rate of the pair is fixed below 1.2250.
Report on Commitments of Traders (COT):
The "non-commercial" group of traders has been trading in a less "bearish" manner than they were a week ago. Speculators now hold 5,462 more long contracts than short contracts, a difference of 703 units. The major players' overall outlook is still "bearish," and there are still more short-term contracts than long-term contracts. The situation has shifted in favor of the British pound over the last few months, but today the number of long and short positions in the hands of speculators is nearly doubled once more. As a result, the outlook for the pound has once again declined, although the British pound is increasing slowly and may be following the euro. There was a departure outside the three-month ascending corridor on the 4-hour chart, which may have stopped the pound's development at this point.
The following is the UK and US news calendar:
The economic calendars for Wednesday in the UK and the US are almost empty. The rest of the day won't see any impact from the information background on traders' attitudes.
Forecast for GBP/USD and trading advice:
Sales of the pound may be conceivable if prices rise from the hourly chart's level of 1.2342, with goals of 1.2238 and 1.2112. When the pair closes above the level of 1.2342 with a goal of 1.2432, purchases of the pair are possible.
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