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In anticipation of further positive US economic data and in search of hints on the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike, traders are selling US stock index futures. Following a failed attempt to advance on Wednesday during the regular session, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures both decreased by 0.3%. The European Stoxx 600 index has surpassed its all-time high.
In contrast to risky currencies, the US dollar slightly fell, while US Treasury bonds increased. After increasing by six basis points on Wednesday, the benchmark 10-year bond yield decreased.
Stock investors were encouraged by optimistic profit and loss reports and evidence of the economy's resilience, as well as hints that inflation, while still too high, is at least declining. The data on retail sales in the United States released yesterday surprised everyone yet again since they increased significantly in January of this year. Reports on producer inflation and several other real estate market indicators will be released today, which might cause another surge in volatility and a decline in the stock market.
According to a brief analysis from UBS Global Wealth Management, the Fed's monetary policy is not likely to change anytime soon, and it is still too early to forecast that the regulator would switch to a "dovish reversal" in the first half of 2023.
In the meantime, investors are increasing their bets on how much the Fed will raise interest rates in the near future. The federal funds rate is now anticipated to increase to 5.2% in July.
On Wednesday, Bitcoin gained 8.7%, and it is still increasing today. The first cryptocurrency in history has reached a level of $25,000 thanks to the strongest development in the last three months. Of course, a large portion of the market still thinks the Fed will be able to achieve a softer landing.
While investors evaluated new signs of increased energy demand in China and a big rise in crude oil inventories in the United States, oil prices stayed in a limited range. Gold stayed the same.
Regarding the S&P 500's technical picture, riskier assets are once again under pressure. Only if the bulls can rise again over $4,150 today will the index be able to continue its recovery. The bulls' control over $4,185, which will put an end to the bear market, will be no less of a target. After that, we can anticipate an upward movement that is more confident, to support the trading instrument at $4,208. The level of $4,229 is a little higher and will be challenging to surpass. Buyers are only required to declare themselves in the area of $4,116 in the case of a downward movement against the backdrop of rising retail sales in the United States and a lack of demand. Its breakdown will cause the trading instrument to move quickly to $4,091 and pave the way for $4,064.
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