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Hi everyone! On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair rebounded from 1.2112, the Fibonacci correction level of 127.2%. It resumed an upward movement, reaching 1.2238. As of Monday morning, the pound sterling rose higher. However, it is lacking new drivers as the economic calendar is uneventful today. Besides, there are lots of important events this week. Therefore, traders are unwilling to take risks. If the GBP/USD pair declines below 1.2112, it is likely to slide down to 1.2007 and slightly lower.
Last Friday, there were almost no crucial economic reports. However, at the end of the day, the pound sterling managed to climb. Fresh macro stats also did not support the US dollar. Retail sales dropped. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index contracted. Thus, the US dollar dipped slightly as the reports were not important. Besides, this week, there will be plenty of other events that are sure to impact the pair. The Fed and the BoJ will hold their meetings. Many economists fear that the Fed may leave the key rate unchanged time times due to the risk of the banking crisis in the United States. Several banks have already collapsed, which may trigger a domino effect. The Fed is likely to raise the interest rate by 25 basis points instead of the 50 basis point rate increase that Jerome Powell talked about in Congress.
Traders are waiting for the key rate decision from the Bank of England. This will be the eleventh rate hike in a row. If this assumption is correct, the US dollar and the pound sterling will be unable to grow markedly. Speculators priced such an outcome a long time ago.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair advanced after a jump from the 1.2008 level. Thus, the pair could climb to 1.2250, the Fibonacci correction level of 127.2%. If the pair rolls back from 1.2250, it may fall to 1.2008. Recently, there have been lots of horizontal movements on the chart.
Commitments of Traders (COT):
The mood of the Non-commercial traders over the last week has become less bearish than two weeks earlier. However, these are reports published two weeks ago. The CFTC still does not provide fresh reports. The number of long positions increased by 7,549, while the number of short ones grew by 1,227. The sentiment of large traders remains bearish. The number of short positions still exceeds the number of long ones. Over the past few months, the pound sterling has been gradually growing. Yet, as of early March, the difference between the number of Long and Short was still rather big. Thus, the prospects for the pound sterling are getting better. Yet, the pound sterling has been trading without a clear-cut trend for the last few months. It has been neither dropping nor rising. On the 4-hour chart, it broke out of the downward corridor. It may stimulate its further upward movement. However, there are many pitfalls. Traders are also hesitant about what to do.
Economic calendar for US and UK:
On Monday, the economic calendar for the UK and the US is empty. The impact of fundamental factors on market sentiment will be low today.
Outlook for GBP/USD and trading recommendations:
Speculators are recommended to go short if the pair drops from 1.2238 or 1.2250 with target levels of 1.2112 and 1.2007. I advised traders to open long positions if the pair rebounded from the 1.2007 level with a target level of 1.2112 on the 1H chart. The price has already reached this level. The next target levels are located at 1.2238 and 1.2250.
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