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Despite the fact that the European Central Bank has much more reasons to consider lowering interest rates compared to the Federal Reserve, the ECB not only raised the refinancing rate but Lagarde practically stated that there would be another rate hike in July. This decision not only contradicts expectations but also goes against common sense to some extent. Of course, this resulted in the dollar's decline, thereby reducing the pressure caused by its apparent overbought condition. However, the European economy is facing serious difficulties associated with the increased cost of energy resources. The European industry suffers the most. Many, including in the West, are already openly calling what is happening the deindustrialization of Europe. And a strong dollar may somewhat alleviate this negative trend. So, the decisions and intentions of the ECB are more harmful than beneficial to the European economy. Especially considering that inflation in the euro area is slowing down as fast as in the United States.
Today's inflation report should confirm the fact of its slowdown from 7.0% to 6.1%. And don't think that the ECB was unaware of this yesterday because we are talking about final data. The preliminary assessment was already available two weeks ago. In such a situation, the most reasonable approach would have been not to touch interest rates and observe the developments for at least two or three months. Frankly speaking, the ECB's actions are raising more and more questions. And this naturally leads to an increase in concerns, which are usually referred to as uncertainty risks. Investors typically try to stay away from such risks. Therefore, the euro's substantial growth, which pulled the pound along, is likely to be unsustainable and probably won't last long.
The GBP/USD pair has surged in value by nearly 300 pips since the beginning of the trading week. This movement has resulted in the extension of the medium-term uptrend. Take note that such an intense price change has triggered a technical signal of the pound's overbought conditions.
On the four-hour chart, the RSI is at its highest level since autumn 2022, indicating a technical signal of overbought conditions.
On the same timeframe the Alligator's MAs are headed upwards, which points to an upward cycle.
In this case, speculators are disregarding the overbought status, as evidenced by the sustained momentum and the absence of a proper correction. However, this process cannot persist indefinitely, and sooner or later, there will be a liquidation of long positions, leading to a pullback. Until then, traders will consider the psychological level of 1.3000 as the main resistance level.
The complex indicator analysis points to an upward cycle in the short-term, medium-term and intraday periods.
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