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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its downward movement on Tuesday after consolidating below the corrective level of 23.6% (1.2321) towards the level of 1.2250. A rebound in the pair's rate from this level will favor the British pound and some growth towards 1.2321. Closing quotes below 1.2250 increase the likelihood of further decline towards the next level at 1.2175.
The wave situation is currently quite ambiguous. In recent weeks, we have seen horizontal movement with rare bursts of trader activity, but last Friday ended with the formation of a strong upward wave that broke the peaks of all waves in the last 2 months. Thus, on the one hand, we are now forming a "bullish" trend, but I doubt it will develop. I think it's more likely to form a new "bearish" trend, albeit a short-term one, with the pair falling to the 1.2106 level.
The issue of the ECB interest rate seems closed. Almost the entire ECB Governing Council has stated that there is currently no need for further tightening, but some of its representatives have allowed for the possibility of an unsatisfactory inflation situation that may require regulatory intervention. At the moment, I do not see any signs of impending tightening. Inflation in the European Union has started to decline faster, reducing the likelihood of a rate hike to zero. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), represented by Alfred Kramer, also believes that there is no need to raise the rate anymore, but it should be kept at its peak throughout the next year. He noted that a too-strict monetary policy is "cheaper" than a too-soft one. In his words, inflation risks are still stable, and an unfavorable development of the situation could delay the return to 2% until 2026.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair has made a reversal in favor of the US currency and consolidated below the corrective level of 50.0% (1.2289). Thus, the downward process can continue towards the next level at 1.2035. No impending divergences are observed today for any of the indicators.
Commitments of Traders (COT) report:
The mood of the "non-commercial" trader category has become more "bearish" in the latest report. The number of long contracts held by speculators has decreased by 3407 units, and the number of short contracts has decreased by 1672 units. The overall sentiment of major players has long since shifted to "bearish," and the gap between the number of long and short contracts is widening, but now in the other direction: 64,000 versus 84,000. In my view, there are excellent prospects for further declines in the British pound. I still do not expect a strong rise in the pound in the near future. I believe that over time, bulls will continue to offload their buy positions, as is the case with the European currency. The recent weeks' growth is a correction.
News Calendar for the US and the UK:
US - Speech by the Fed Chairman Mr. Powell (14:15 UTC).
On Wednesday, the economic events calendar contains only one entry: Jerome Powell's speech. The impact of the news background on market sentiment for the remaining part of the day may be of moderate strength.
Forecast for GBP/USD and trader advice:
I advised selling the pound yesterday after consolidating below the 1.2321 level on the hourly chart, with a target at the nearest level. This level is 1.2250, and it has already been reached. Closing below it will allow staying in sales with a target at 1.2175. Purchases today are quite unsafe.
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