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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair returned to 1.2517 on Thursday and experienced a new rebound from this level. A reversal in favor of the British pound was executed, but it failed to show significant growth. Today, the pair's quotes are once again trying to return to the level of 1.2517. Consolidating the pair's rate below will increase the probability of further decline towards the corrective level of 38.2% (1.2453). It may also put an end to horizontal movement on the daily chart.
The wave situation recently raised no questions. The last completed upward wave failed to break the last peak (from March 21st), and the new downward wave has already broken the low of the previous wave (from April 1st). Thus, the GBP/USD pair trend remains "bearish," and there are no signs of completion. The first sign of bulls transitioning to the offensive could be the break of the peak on April 9th. However, bulls now need to overcome a distance of about 190 pips to the zone of 1.2705–1.2715, which is unlikely to happen in the coming days.
On Thursday, traders found no grounds for either buying or selling. The information background needed to be stronger. The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the US was 211K, slightly higher than expected, and the Producer Price Index rose by 0.2% against market expectations of 0.3%. These data practically had no impact on traders' sentiment. This morning, the GDP figure for February was released in the UK, which stood at +0.1% m/m. This was what traders were expecting. In a three-month period (not quarterly), economic growth was 0.2% against a forecast of +0.1%. Industrial production volumes increased by 1.1% with zero forecasts. These data could support the bulls slightly, but the bears have not relinquished initiative after the US inflation report and will seek to close below the important level of 1.2517.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the American dollar after forming a "bearish" divergence on the CCI indicator and consolidation below the level of 1.2620. Thus, the decline in quotes may continue toward the level of 1.2450. However, I want to remind you that horizontal movement on the 4-hour chart persists. Further decline in the pair is not obvious. A new descending trend corridor characterizes traders' sentiment over the past month as "bearish." But only in the last month.
Commitments of Traders (COT) report:
The sentiment of the "non-commercial" trader category over the past reporting week has become slightly more "bullish." The number of long contracts held by speculators increased by 7091 units, while the number of short contracts decreased by 1153. The overall sentiment of major players remains "bullish" but has begun to weaken in recent weeks. The gap between the number of long and short contracts is now less than double: 98 thousand versus 55 thousand.
There are still prospects for a decline in the pound, but over the past three months, the number of long contracts has increased from 61 thousand to 98 thousand, while the number of short contracts has remained almost unchanged. Over time, bulls will start liquidating their buy positions, as all possible factors for buying the British pound have already been exhausted. However, bears continue to demonstrate their weakness almost every week, which hinders the pound from starting to fall.
News calendar for the US and UK:
UK - GDP for February (06:00 UTC).
UK - Changes in industrial production volumes (06:00 UTC).
US - University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (14:00 UTC).
On Friday, the economic events calendar contains three entries, two of which have already become available to traders. The impact of the information background on market sentiment today will be weak.
GBP/USD forecast and trader advice:
Sales of the pound could have been opened on a rebound from the zone of 1.2705–1.2715 with a target of the zone 1.2584–1.2611. This zone has been worked out and overcome, so sales could be held with a target of 1.2517, which has also been worked out. New sales - on a close below 1.2517 with a target of 1.2453. Purchases are possible on an hourly chart rebound from the level of 1.2517 with a target of 1.2584–1.2611, but bears are currently stronger than bulls.
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