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The EUR/USD pair made a new turnaround in favor of the European currency on Wednesday, consolidating above the corrective level of 100.0%-1.0696. Thus, the growth process may continue today towards the next Fibonacci level at 76.4% (1.0764). The ascending trend channel characterizes the current sentiment of traders as bullish, but I remind you that the bearish trend persists. Consolidation of the pair's rate below the corridor will favor the US currency and resume the decline of the euro.
The wave situation remains unchanged. The last completed downward wave broke the low of the previous wave (from April 2), while the new upward wave is still too weak to break the last peak from April 9. Thus, we are dealing with a bearish trend, and at the moment, there is no sign of its completion. For such a sign to appear, the new upward wave needs to break the peak of the previous wave (from April 9). Alternatively, the next downward wave should fail to break the last low from April 16. Until then, the bears will maintain the advantage.
The information background on Wednesday needed to be more formal for traders. The report on durable goods orders in the US showed an increase of 2.6% in March against market expectations of +2.5%. Orders excluding transportation increased by 0.2% against forecasts of +0.3%. Orders excluding defense increased by 0.2% against market expectations of +0.2%. Thus, all three reports, which could prompt traders to trade more actively, had little impact on their sentiment. Today, we await the US GDP report for the first quarter, which may suffer the same fate as yesterday's publications.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair declined to the corrective level of 23.6%-1.0644 and rebounded from it after forming two bullish divergences on the CCI indicator and the RSI indicator falling below 20. Thus, a reversal in favor of the European currency occurred, and the growth process towards the corrective level of 38.2%-1.0765 began. There are no new emerging divergences observed for any indicator. Consolidation of the pair's rate below the level of 1.0644 will allow for the resumption of the decline towards the next Fibonacci level at 0.0%–1.0450.
Commitments of Traders (COT) report:
In the last reporting week, speculators opened 3493 long contracts and 23992 short contracts. The sentiment of the "non-commercial" group remains bullish but continues to weaken rapidly. The total number of long contracts held by speculators now stands at 179,000, while short contracts amount to 167,000. The situation will continue to change in favor of bears. In the second column, we see that the number of short positions increased from 92,000 to 167,000 over the last 3 months. Over the same period, the number of long positions decreased from 211,000 to 179,000. Bulls have dominated the market for too long, and now they need strong information to resume the bullish trend. However, the information background has only been supporting bears lately. The European currency could have lost much more ground in recent weeks.
News Calendar for the US and EU:
US - Change in GDP for the first quarter (12:30 UTC).
US - Number of initial jobless claims (12:30 UTC).
On April 25, the economic events calendar contains two entries, one of which may be considered significant. The impact of the information background on traders' sentiment today may be moderate in strength, but only in the second half of the day.
Forecast for EUR/USD and Trader Advice:
Sales of the pair are possible today on an hourly chart consolidation below the ascending corridor with a target of 1.0619. Purchases of the euro were possible on a close above the level of 1.0696 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.0764, but bulls are currently weak, so the upward movement may end soon. Caution should be exercised with purchases.
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