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The UK economy is gradually recovering from the downturn in the second half of 2023. GDP growth in Q1 was 0.9% after falling 0.8% in the second half of 2023. The first data for April will be published on Wednesday, and there is no reason to assume that growth will turn negative again.
The day before that the Labor Market Report will be released, which is traditionally important in terms of average wage trends. It peaked last July at 8.5% before starting to decline, but has remained relatively stable near 5.7% for the past four months. This is still too much to expect a Bank of England rate cut, with the market seeing the first cut in November, although there is a slight possibility in favor of September.
As we can see, the Bank of England rate outlook is very close to the Federal Reserve rate outlook, meaning that the current GBP/USD quotes do not include expectations of a possible change in the yield differential, and the current rise in the pound is more due to the pace of economic recovery and a slightly higher threat of inflation resumption than in the US. The BoE's next meeting is on July 20, the market is confident that there will be no rate cut and will focus on macroeconomic indicators such as employment and wages.
Wednesday will be a key day for the pound, as before the release of the US inflation report and the outcome of the Fed meeting, a number of its own macroeconomic indicators will be released - GDP for April, trade balance, industrial production indices, plus NIESR's estimate of the GDP growth rate in May. Before the Fed meeting these data will have little impact, but after the meeting they will be factored into the overall picture, and so far forecasts suggest that these data will be in the pound's favor.
The net long GBP position increased by 1.4 billion during the reporting week, the total bullish bias is 3.5 billion. The bullish correction has been ongoing for the sixth consecutive week, the price is distinctly above the long-term average, and even Friday's shocks did not turn it down.
The pound met strong resistance near the 1.2790/2810 trendline, but the bearish pullback, unlike the euro, was shallow. GBP found support near the technical level (23.6% pullback from the April-May rise), the next support is 1.2620/30, but the probability of a decline to these levels appears low. We expect GBP/USD to resume growth after consolidation, strong movements are unlikely before the Fed meeting. We see the local high of 1.2892 as the nearest target.
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