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The test of the 155.07 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero line, confirming a correct entry point for selling the dollar in continuation of the morning trend. Unfortunately, the trade resulted in a loss, as the pair did not experience a new wave of decline.
The fact that the Bank of Japan raised interest rates and then took a wait-and-see approach led traders to start buying the dollar and selling the yen again, even as many risky assets on the forex market continued to rise. It appears that the yen is under special attention from traders and seems to be acting independently of other currencies. Upcoming U.S. macroeconomic indicators may further boost USD/JPY if the data supports the dollar. These include PMI business activity indices, consumer sentiment indices from the University of Michigan, inflation expectations, and existing home sales data. The latter will be closely watched as it provides insights into the health of the housing market. Only very weak U.S. data could put pressure back on the dollar and remind traders that the Bank of Japan is focusing on tightening its policy, unlike the Federal Reserve's current easing stance.
For the intraday strategy, I will rely more on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2 to continue the downward trend.
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at an entry point near 156.27 (green line on the chart), aiming for a rise to the level of 157.05 (thicker green line on the chart). At 157.05, I will exit purchases and open sell positions in the opposite direction (targeting a 30–35-point movement downward). Expect the pair's growth only if strong U.S. statistics are released.Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning its upward movement.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if the price tests 155.69 twice, and the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. Growth toward 156.27 and 157.05 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after the price updates 155.69 (red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline. The key target for sellers will be 155.05, where I will exit sell positions and open buy positions in the opposite direction (targeting a 20–25-point upward movement). Pressure on the pair today is possible, but it will require a specific informational trigger.Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning its downward movement.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if the price tests 156.27 twice, and the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. Declines toward 155.69 and 155.00 can be expected.
Chart Details:
Important Note for Beginner Forex Traders
Beginner traders should be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. Before important fundamental reports are released, it is often best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you risk quickly losing your entire deposit, especially if trading large volumes without proper money management.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one provided above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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