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On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the 23.6% retracement level, reversed in favor of the euro, and continued its upward movement. By Wednesday morning, the pair's quotes consolidated above the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 1.0373, indicating a potential continuation of growth toward the next levels at 1.0411 and 1.0435. A consolidation below 1.0373 could signal a potential decline in the euro.
The wave structure on the hourly chart has become ambiguous. The last completed upward wave broke through the previous wave's peak, while the most recent downward wave breached the lows of the two preceding waves. This suggests the trend may be shifting to a bearish phase, or we could be witnessing a complex sideways movement. The inconsistent wave sizes contribute to this uncertainty.
Tuesday's economic calendar was sparse, with only one notable report that failed to support the bears. The JOLTS job openings in December totaled just 7.6 million in the U.S., significantly below the expected 8 million, forcing bears to retreat from the market. In my view, the U.S. dollar's decline is also influenced by Donald Trump's aggressive policies, targeting any country unwilling to play by America's rules. Fortunately, the conflicts are limited to trade wars for now. However, Trump has already expressed interest in the Panama Canal and Greenland. Should Panama and Denmark refuse to cede these territories, the situation could escalate.
Currently, the geopolitical backdrop is unfavorable for the dollar, but from an economic standpoint, the dollar remains strong. The FOMC's monetary policy still suggests potential dollar strengthening in 2025.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar after forming a bearish divergence on the CCI indicator, leading to a drop to the 161.8% retracement level at 1.0225. A rebound from this level supported the euro's recovery. A close above 1.0332 increases the likelihood of further growth toward the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.0436. No emerging divergences are observed on any indicators today.
In the latest reporting week, professional traders closed 14,005 long positions and 9,887 short positions. The "Non-commercial" group remains bearish, suggesting a continuation of the pair's decline. The total number of long positions held by speculators is now 153,000, while short positions total 220,000.
For nineteen consecutive weeks, large players have been selling the euro, indicating a bearish trend with no exceptions. Occasionally, bulls dominate during isolated weeks, but these instances are exceptions. The primary factor behind the dollar's decline—expectations of FOMC policy easing—has already played out, leaving the market with fewer reasons to sell the dollar. While new factors may emerge over time, the U.S. dollar's growth remains more likely. Chart analysis also supports the continuation of the long-term bearish trend, so I expect further declines in the EUR/USD pair.
On February 5, the economic calendar features several important reports. The impact of this information on market sentiment is expected to be moderate.
Selling the pair is advisable today following rejections at upper levels on the hourly chart. Given the number of resistance levels, predicting the exact rejection point is challenging.
Buying opportunities with targets at 1.0411 and 1.0435 remain valid as long as the pair stays above 1.0373. However, declines are also possible today due to the informational backdrop.
Fibonacci levels are plotted from 1.0533–1.0213 on the hourly chart and from 1.0603–1.1214 on the 4-hour chart.
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