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The price test at 1.2517 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly downward from the zero mark, limiting further downside potential. As a result, I chose not to sell the pound. The second test of 1.2517 happened while the MACD was still well below zero, allowing for Scenario #2, which suggested buying the pound. However, a significant upward movement never materialized.
The strong ADP data, indicating growth in private sector employment in the U.S., had a noticeable impact on the forex market. The increase in jobs reflected investor confidence in the resilience of the U.S. economy, which, in turn, placed pressure on the British pound. As a result, the GBP/USD pair faced selling pressure, confirming a correction that left bulls without a chance to maintain upward momentum.
Today, the pressure on the pound may intensify due to the Bank of England's monetary policy report and its interest rate decision. The market expects the BoE to take a more cautious approach, considering economic challenges and global uncertainties, by potentially cutting the rate by a quarter point. If the BoE confirms its concerns about inflation and economic growth, this could significantly impact investor confidence in the pound. In such a scenario, selling GBP/USD would be a logical response from market participants looking to minimize risk. However, traders should also consider key technical support levels, as these can serve as crucial reference points.
For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on the execution of Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound if the price reaches 1.2496 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.2538 (thicker green line). At 1.2538, I intend to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 30-35 pip pullback. A bullish scenario for the pound can be expected if the BoE maintains a hawkish stance. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound if the price tests 1.2473 twice while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the downside potential and trigger a market reversal to the upside. Expected growth targets are 1.2496 and 1.2538.
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after the break of 1.2473 (red line on the chart), which should trigger a rapid decline. The key target for sellers will be 1.2438, where I intend to exit shorts and immediately open long positions, expecting a 20-25 pip pullback. The best selling opportunities will arise if the BoE takes a dovish stance. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound if the price tests 1.2496 twice while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the upside potential and lead to a market reversal downward. Expected targets for a decline are 1.2473 and 1.2438.
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