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The wave structure on the 4-hour BTC/USD chart remains clear and well-defined. After an extended and complex a-b-c-d-e correction, which lasted from March 14 to August 5, a new impulsive wave began to form. This wave has already taken a five-wave structure. Judging by the size of the first wave, the fifth wave may turn out to be shortened. Based on this, I do not expect Bitcoin to rise above $110,000–115,000 in the coming months.
Additionally, wave 4 has taken a three-wave structure, further confirming the validity of the current wave count. The news background has been supporting Bitcoin's growth, driven by regular institutional investments, government interest, and pension fund allocations. However, Trump's policies could drive investors away, and the trend cannot remain bullish indefinitely.
Looking at the current structure of wave 2 within wave 5, I doubt that it is actually wave 2 of 5. I am more inclined to believe that the uptrend is nearing its completion.
Trump's statements could mislead market participants
On Wednesday, BTC/USD remained largely unchanged, as the market settled after Monday's volatility. Now, investors are paying closer attention to everything Donald Trump says.
Over the weekend, Trump announced tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, only to cancel them by Monday. Tariffs against China remain in place, but China has retaliated with its own tariffs on US imports. This scenario is eerily similar to the trade tensions of 6–7 years ago.
Previously, the crypto market expected Trump to support the industry, but now the question arises—will he follow through on his promises?
Anthony Scaramucci at SkyBridge Capital believes that Trump's team has no intention of easing crypto regulations. According to him, crypto market participants should not expect favorable policies. Scaramucci argues that Trump is more focused on personal financial gains, particularly with the creation of his own cryptocurrency TRUMP.
"President Trump is unpredictable, and while his initiative to create a US Wealth Fund sounds appealing, his recent decisions have not provided positive sentiment for the market," Scaramucci stated.
He also reminded investors that Trump often acts in his own interest, and many of his executive orders get reversed quickly. During his first presidency, Trump frequently made false statements and broke promises.
Therefore, the market's optimism about Trump appears to lack a solid foundation. Personally, I believe Bitcoin will decline in 2025.
Based on my wave BTC/USD analysis, I conclude that Bitcoin's uptrend is nearing completion. This may be an unpopular opinion, but the fifth wave could turn out to be shortened. If this assumption is correct, we could soon witness a sharp decline or a complex correction.
Therefore, I do not recommend buying Bitcoin at the moment.
In the near future, Bitcoin could drop below the low of wave 4, which would confirm a transition into a bearish trend.
On higher wave timeframes, we can observe a completed five-wave bullish structure, suggesting that a corrective downtrend may soon begin.
Key principles of my wave analysis:
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