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The 1.0387 price test occurred when the MACD indicator had already risen significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. As a result, I did not buy and missed the upward move. I also did not see any other entry points.
Weak German industrial production data pressured the euro, limiting its upward potential in the first half of the day. A decline in industrial orders and weakness in key sectors raised concerns about the stability of economic growth, leading traders to shift to safe-haven assets, which weakened EUR/USD. However, the deterioration of the German industrial sector was widely expected, preventing a strong sell-off of the euro.
Employment and unemployment data are always critical indicators of economic health, and today, the U.S. labor market report will take center stage. If job creation exceeds expectations, confidence in the U.S. economy will strengthen, increasing the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current interest rates, leading to dollar appreciation and EUR/USD decline.
On the other hand, weaker-than-expected data may cause market stress, prompting traders to reassess Fed rate cut expectations and potentially push EUR/USD back into an uptrend.
For intraday trading, I will focus on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.
Scenario #1: Buy EUR/USD at 1.0395 (green line) with a target of 1.0430. At 1.0430, I will exit long positions and consider selling for a 30-35 point pullback. A bullish move is likely only if U.S. data is weak.
Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above zero and just starting to rise.
Scenario #2: Buy EUR/USD after two consecutive tests of 1.0372 if the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit downward potential and likely trigger a reversal upward. Target levels: 1.0395 and 1.0430.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: Sell EUR/USD after it reaches 1.0372 (red line) with a target level of 1.0336, where I will exit shorts and consider a reversal buy (for a 20-25 point retracement). Selling pressure could intensify after strong U.S. data.
Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below zero and just starting to decline.
Scenario #2: Sell EUR/USD after two consecutive tests of 1.0395, if the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the upward potential and signal a market reversal downward. Target levels: 1.0372 and 1.0336.
Chart Explanation
Important Notes for Beginner Traders
Exercise caution when making trading decisions. Avoid entering positions before major economic reports to prevent getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you trade during news events, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses.
Trading without stop-loss orders can result in rapid capital depletion, especially when trading large volumes without proper risk management. A well-structured trading plan is essential—random impulsive trades based on short-term market movements are a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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