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The first test of the 151.95 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero mark, confirming a valid sell entry for the dollar. As a result, the pair dropped to the target level of 151.36. Buying from this level on a rebound allowed for an additional 30 points of profit.
Mixed U.S. labor market data weighed on the USD/JPY pair, leading to its decline at the end of last week. However, Donald Trump's latest threats of new tariffs provided new support for the U.S. dollar, weakening the yen during the Asian session today.
Market focus is now on escalation of trade tensions—which could further support the dollar. Bank of Japan's policy outlook—any hints at rate hikes or stronger yen support could significantly impact USD/JPY. The pair's movement will be driven by a combination of factors, including trade policy, monetary policy decisions, and overall economic conditions in both the U.S. and Japan.
For today's trading, I will focus on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.
Scenario #1: Buy USD/JPY at 152.06 (green line on the chart) with a target of 152.72. In the level of 152.72, I'm going to exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (counting on a movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction from the level). It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and serious drawdowns of USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to grow from it.
Scenario #2: Buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 151.70 while MACD is in the oversold zone. Target levels: 152.06 and 152.72.
Scenario #1: Sell USD/JPY after breaking below 151.70 (red line on the chart). The key target of sellers will be the level of 151.02, where I'm going to exit sales, as well as immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (counting on a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). The pressure on the pair may return at any moment. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its decline from it.
Scenario #2: Sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 152.06 while MACD is in the overbought zone. Target levels: 151.70 and 151.02.
Chart Explanation
Important. Novice forex traders need to make their entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market in order to avoid falling into sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate. If you decide to trade during the news release, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use money management, but trade in large volumes.
And remember that for successful trading it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, following the example of the one I presented above. Spontaneous decision-making based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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