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The test of 153.83 in the morning session occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero mark, limiting further downward potential for the pair. Because of this, I did not sell the dollar.
Today, we expect Producer Price Index (PPI) data along with core PPI figures, which could restore demand for the U.S. dollar, supporting yesterday's bullish market.
The key factor will be how actual data compares to forecasts. Stronger-than-expected data will increase the likelihood of a more hawkish Fed, pushing U.S. bond yields higher and making the dollar more attractive to investors. Yesterday's USD rally on CPI data is proof of this trend. Weaker-than-expected data could pressure the dollar, potentially reversing yesterday's gains.
The weekly initial jobless claims report is unlikely to have a significant impact on the market.
For today's intraday strategy, I will focus on executing Scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY if the price reaches 154.04 (green line on the chart), aiming for a rise to 154.75 (thicker green line on the chart). At 154.75, I will exit buy trades and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 30-35 point pullback.
Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 153.63, while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and may trigger a market reversal. Targets: 154.04, 154.75
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: Selling USD/JPY is possible after the price breaks below 153.63 (red line on the chart), leading to a sharp decline. The key target for sellers will be 153.03, where I will exit short trades and buy in the opposite direction, expecting a 20-25 point retracement.
Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 154.04, while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This setup will limit the pair's upward potential and may lead to a market reversal downward. Targets: 153.63, 153.03
Key Chart Levels:
Important Notes for Beginner Traders:
Exercise Caution – Avoid opening new trades before major economic reports to prevent sudden price fluctuations.
Use Stop-Loss Orders – If you trade during high-impact news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-losses, you risk rapid account depletion, especially if money management is not followed or if large lot sizes are used.
Follow a Structured Trading Plan – Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are a losing strategy for intraday traders. A clear trading plan, like the one outlined above, is essential for consistent success.
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