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On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair continued its upward movement, reaching the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0458 by the end of the day. A consolidation above this level would allow for further growth towards the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.0533, though I believe we are more likely to see a pullback to 1.0411 and 1.0373 today. While the bullish trend has persisted in recent weeks, it appears more horizontal on higher timeframes.
The wave pattern on the hourly chart has become increasingly ambiguous. The last downward wave failed to break the previous low, while the last upward wave surpassed the previous peak. This suggests either the continuation of a bullish trend or a complex sideways movement. The inconsistent wave sizes add further uncertainty, making it difficult to determine a clear trend.
Thursday's economic data did not provide any significant support for the bulls. However, the euro managed to withstand another challenge in the form of industrial production data from the Eurozone. The data presents a mixed picture. Month-on-month industrial output fell by 1.1% (worse than the expected -0.6%). Year-on-year output declined by 2.0% (better than the expected -3.1%).
The significance of each figure is open to interpretation. Meanwhile, in the U.S., the Producer Price Index (PPI) came in at 0.4% m/m, and initial jobless claims were at 213,000—both aligning with market expectations.
This means that the only factor supporting the euro was the Eurozone industrial production report, which was neither strong nor definitive. Given the current conditions, I am highly skeptical about the bullish trend, as it appears unstable and fragile. Therefore, I believe traders should be very cautious with long positions.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair returned to and consolidated above the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.0436. However, it is clear that throughout 2025, EUR/USD has been moving primarily sideways, indicating a range-bound market rather than a clear trend. This suggests that a decline from current or slightly higher levels remains likely. No emerging divergences are observed on any indicator today.
During the last reporting week, professional traders opened 8,894 new long positions and 904 new short positions. The sentiment among non-commercial traders remains bearish, indicating a continued likelihood of EUR/USD decline. The total number of:
For 20 consecutive weeks, institutional traders have been reducing their exposure to the euro, reinforcing a long-term bearish trend. Occasionally, bullish momentum takes control within individual weeks, but these instances remain exceptions rather than the rule.
The key bearish factor—the expectation of FOMC monetary policy easing—has already been priced in. There are currently no strong reasons to sell the U.S. dollar further. While new catalysts could emerge over time, the dollar's strength still appears more probable. Technical analysis also confirms the continuation of a long-term bearish trend, which is why I expect further EUR/USD declines.
February 14 includes several data releases that may interest traders. The fundamental background could have a moderate impact on market sentiment today.
Selling opportunities are valid if the pair consolidates below 1.0458 (or 1.0435) on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.0411 and 1.0373.
Buying opportunities are not currently considered, as EUR/USD is likely trading within a range near the upper boundary.
Fibonacci retracement grids are constructed:
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