19.02.202509:37 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on February 19. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The test of the $151.64 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun to move downward from the zero mark, confirming that it was the right time to sell the dollar. However, the anticipated downward movement did not materialize, leading to a loss.

Today's data on Japan's machine orders and trade balance disappointed market participants. The decline in orders, particularly from key export markets, indicates slowing industrial production and a potential drop in business confidence. A negative trade balance further undermines the Japanese yen's position and may pressure the Bank of Japan to rethink its monetary policy. Economists attribute these issues to several factors, including global economic uncertainty stemming from the ongoing trade war. Additionally, a decrease in demand from China, one of Japan's largest trading partners, plays a significant role.

The impact of these indicators on the Japanese economy could be significant in the short term. However, the yen's depreciation following the release of the data was quickly offset, as expectations of further rate hikes by the BOJ continue to support the currency's appeal.

I will focus primarily on implementing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2 for intraday strategy.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY upon reaching 151.89 (green line on the chart) with a target of 152.62 (thicker green line). At 152.62, I plan to exit purchases and open sell positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 30-35 pip movement in the opposite direction from the entry level. It is best to return to buying USD/JPY on pullbacks and significant dips. Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if two consecutive tests of the 151.55 level occur while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downside potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. Expected price targets are 151.89 and 152.62.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY only after a confirmed break below 151.55 (red line on the chart), likely leading to a rapid decline in the pair. The key downside target is 150.93, where I plan to exit sell positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction, expecting a 20-25 pip reversal. Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if two consecutive tests of the 151.89 level occur while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upside potential and trigger a reversal downward. Expected price targets are 151.55 and 150.93.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.