20.02.202512:44 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold continues its strong upward momentum, reaching a new all-time high above $2,950. The surge is driven by concerns that U.S. President Donald Trump's proposed tariffs could lead to a global trade war, increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, the decline in U.S. Treasury yields is further supporting bullish sentiment in the gold market.

The FOMC meeting minutes released on Wednesday confirmed expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its policy pause for an extended period. While this could deter traders from opening new positions, potentially limiting gold's gains, the overall fundamental backdrop remains bullish, suggesting that the path of least resistance for XAU/USD is still upward.

Technical Outlook for Gold (XAU/USD)

From a technical perspective, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trading above 70, indicating overbought conditions and calling for caution among bulls. This suggests that gold prices could consolidate within a weekly range before attempting another move higher.

The short-term trend remains bullish, and a sustained break above the $2,945–2,950 resistance zone could pave the way for further gains.

Key Support and Resistance Levels:

Immediate support is located at $2,930, followed by yesterday's low at $2,918 and the psychological level of $2,900.

A break below $2,900 could lead to deeper corrective declines towards $2,880, with further downward potential extending to the $2,860–2,855 region and the $2,834 support level.

If selling pressure intensifies, gold could drop toward $2,815, followed by $2,800 and the critical support zone at $2,785–2,784.