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The euro and the pound have experienced significant growth, a trend that hasn't been observed in quite a while.
Recent news that Germany plans to allocate hundreds of billions of euros for defense and infrastructure investments has prompted a surge in the purchase of risk assets. Economic stimulus typically fosters active recovery, which is something the German economy has been lacking recently.
This decision, made in response to growing geopolitical tensions and the recognition of the need to strengthen European security, was perceived by the markets as a sign of confidence in the eurozone's future. Investors concerned about Germany's economic weakness and inability to respond adequately to challenges now see this move as Berlin's readiness to play a more active role in maintaining stability. The unlocking of funds will allow Germany to modernize its armed forces, which in turn will strengthen the European Union's overall defense capabilities. Additionally, infrastructure investments could stimulate economic growth and create new jobs, positively impacting the euro's long-term exchange rate.
However, today, the euro's growth may stall following the release of PMI data for the eurozone's services sector and the composite index. Weak figures could limit the pair's upward potential. For this reason, monitoring these indicators closely to assess the sustainability of the region's economic recovery is crucial.
Recent data indicating a slowdown in the growth of the services sector may increase concerns about a potential recession. If this occurs, the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to consider it when making its monetary policy decision, which will be announced tomorrow. Should the PMI figures come in significantly below expectations, it could lead to a sell-off in the euro as markets adjust to the possibility of a more dovish stance from the ECB. On the other hand, unexpectedly strong data could provide temporary support for the euro, but this effect may be short-lived due to ongoing uncertainty in the global economy.
In the UK, PMI data for the services sector and the composite index are also set to be released today, coinciding with parliamentary hearings on the Bank of England's monetary policy report. These events could positively influence the pound's upward outlook.
If the data aligns with economists' expectations, following a Mean Reversion strategy is best. A Momentum strategy is recommended if the data is significantly higher or lower than expected.
Buying on a breakout above 1.0635 could push the euro toward 1.0665 and 1.0694.
Selling on a breakout below 1.0610 could lead to a decline toward 1.0570 and 1.0535.
Buying on a breakout above 1.0635 could push the euro toward 1.0665 and 1.0694.
Selling on a breakout below 1.0610 could lead to a decline toward 1.0570 and 1.0535.
Buying on a breakout above 149.92 could push the dollar toward 150.20 and 150.50.
Selling on a breakout below 149.60 could trigger a sell-off toward 149.30 and 148.90.
Look for selling opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.0640, with a return below this level.
Look for buying opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.0597, with a return above this level.
Look for selling opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.2803, with a return below this level.
Look for buying opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.2760, with a return above this level.
Look for selling opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 0.6272, with a return below this level.
Look for buying opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout below 0.6234, with a return above this level.
Look for selling opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.4455, with a return below this level.
Look for buying opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.4396, with a return above this level.
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