20.03.202511:29 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold is experiencing a slight decline after reaching a new all-time high, remaining in a defensive stance.

Currently, bullish traders are exercising caution, as indicated by overbought conditions on the daily chart and the prevailing positive sentiment in the broader market, which generally reduces demand for safe-haven assets like gold.

The modest strength of the U.S. dollar is also limiting further gains in the precious metal. However, the downside remains contained due to uncertainty surrounding President Trump's aggressive trade policies and their potential impact on the global economy. Additionally, geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, continue to support demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Growing expectations that the Fed might begin a rate-cut cycle earlier than anticipated are also reinforcing bullish sentiment for gold.

Technical Outlook:

From a technical perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 70 signals overbought conditions, discouraging traders from initiating new long positions under current circumstances. A prudent approach would be to wait for a short-term consolidation or a modest pullback before considering fresh buy positions. However, a break above the psychological level of $3,000 suggests that the uptrend remains intact, making further upside the path of least resistance.

In case of a significant correction, buyers are likely to step in around the $3,023–$3,022 area, helping to keep prices above the key $3,000 support level, which is now crucial for short-term traders. A decisive break below this level could trigger technical selling, pulling the price towards intermediate support at $2,980–$2,978 and then towards the $2,956 area.

Further downside could extend the decline toward the $2,930 support level, and if bearish momentum persists, gold may retest the psychological $2,900 mark and last week's lows near $2,880.